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“It was not even close! In fact, it was a historic defeat for an incumbent president. Not only will Trump be the only president to have lost the popular vote twice, Joe Biden got a greater percentage of the vote against an incumbent than anyone since 1932.”

I think that this is completely wrong.

Certainly Carter's loss as an incumbent in 1980 was much, much worse. Carter lost the popular vote to Reagan by almost ten points, and the electoral college was even more of a blow-out. Meanwhile, Trump lost to Biden by about four and a half points - half the margin of 1980. The 1980 election featured a third party candidate that took almost 7% of the vote, so that both Reagan and Carter's popular vote percentages were lower. That makes it look like Biden performed better than Reagan, but that's not really an accurate perspective.

And there's a pretty decent argument that Bush41's loss to Clinton was worse as well. In 1992, Clinton received 43% of the vote, compared to Bush's 37.4% of the vote - a 5.6% gap between the candidates. Again, a third-party candidate meant that the vote proportions for both the challenger and the incumbent were lower than typical races.

So even though Joe Biden received a higher percentage of the popular vote than either Reagan or Clinton, Donald Trump also received a percentage of the popular vote than either Carter or Bush41. Or put another way, Donald Trump's loss was probably the best of any losing incumbent besides Gerald Ford.

Albaby
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