No. of Recommendations: 3
It's not that the yield curve would remain inverted until the recession begins, but that the fact that it inverted is an indicator of a near future recession.

Fuskie
Who thinks there are a whole bunch of factors in play, from the trade war to uncertainty in the 2020
election to a potential new persian gulf conflict among them...


Agreed but perhaps the strongest and most consistent leading indicator of a out there is the yield curve.
All of them 10y-3m, 10y-1y,10y-2y,forward6q-3m and 10y exp-3m have been consistent leading
indicators and they typically return to positive before the downturn starts.
FRED data on their site only goes back to 1982 but heres a link going back to 1955 that shows 4 more
calls.
https://www.financialsense.com/matthew-kerkhoff/which-yield-...

So the yield curve has defiantly flashed a warning of bad things to come. But a majority of backtested
TAA strategies have been moving from caution to risk over the last couple of months. Always enough
indicators to let you get yourself in trouble ;<)

RAM who is more in safe than risk based more on my age than conviction.
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