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Biotech and Wireless. Wireless and Biotech. The two words that have been on the Gardner Bros' (no, not Mario and Luigi, the other Bros.) tongues for the last month or so.

I'll just play with the wireless. While some are picking Nokia, my bet is Qualcomm that will be chosen. Ever drop your cellular and watch the pieces fly out? Ever notice the Qualcomm logo on any of those pieces? Okay, a little less drastic, just look on the back of your digital cellular and tell me what you see. Chances are you're seeing the words Digital by Qualcomm. And that is regardless of whether it is a Nokia, Erikkson, Sony, or Kyocera phone.

Plus you have to look at the future of wireless outside of the phone division alone. Look towards Palm Pilots and the like. I believe QCOM will be there.

I'll try and see if it fits the RM Criteria. Unless anyone else would like to do so. Be my guest.
Keith...
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Okay, a little less drastic, just look on the back of your digital cellular and tell me what you see.

Excuse me while I go and smash my head against the keyboard. Qcom is possibly a rulebreaker BUT it is for sure not a rule maker. Nokia is the rule maker. Why. Qcom's technology is used in prts of the US, Barizil, China and thats it. GSM is the digital technology used by the whole world. As an example consider the cell phone I have in front of me now.

It says Nokia on it, back and front. No where does it have any mention of Qcom. This would be because its a GSM phone.

DD
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QCOM's gross margin is only 34.8%. If we're dropping that low then we may as well bring in AOL - they have better sales, earnings and name recognition in every household in America.
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"QCOM's gross margin is only 34.8%. If we're dropping that low then we may as well
bring in AOL - they have better sales, earnings and name recognition in every
household in America."

You're looking at pre sell-off margins. Their handset division was losing money for them. Their remaining royalty business has 100% margins! That's what all the hoopla was about last year.
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Why QCOM is not a rule maker is simple. Ask this question. What have they done? Well to sum it up they were given the rights to a technology that the american government developed, and that we all happily paid for.

But what is next, QCOM will more than likely not be the ones who develop the next best thing that will replace CDMA. Come on now, $1000 target ( now $250 ), what a joke. CDMA is obviously the greatest thing right now, but how many companies are looking at those royalties and saying " boy we could really spend a lot on R&D and come out far ahead if we develop something better. IT will be a long time B$ that happens, but a long time in the tech world is a couple of years. They would need CDMA to be dominant for the next ten years for them to be worth what they are now and that is without any more appreciation.

GOOD LUCK!
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...what a joke. CDMA is obviously the greatest thing right now, but how many companies are looking at those royalties and saying " boy we could really spend a lot on R&D and come out far ahead if we develop something better. IT will be a long time B$ that happens, but a long time in the tech world is a couple of years.

Wrong.

Read the Gorilla Game and try this analysis again. Coming up with 'the next best thing' is:

1) Not nearly as easy as ramping up R&D to do so
2) Not enough to begin with. It's going to take a complete discontinuous innovation to oust CDMA. Inventing something 5 or 10% better will not coax wireless companies to completely change their infrastructure for your 'next best thing.' This is not Pepsi-One vs. Coke. An entire industry and value chain must change for a gorilla standard to be set.

An earlier post touted GSM as a rule maker to CDMA. Not quite. Rule makers don't lose market share day after day. Only the European block countries seem to be hanging on to a GSM future and even they are beginning to waver.

BTW Nokia makes CDMA phones, not just GSM. Why? Far superior voice quality and better ability to move data. If all we wanted out of digital phones for the next 10 years was the ability to call the babysitter to check on the kids, GSM would be just fine. But we want much more. GSM cannot deliver the goods. CDMA does. The wireless world is changing.

GSM is no rule maker. I don't care if you think QCOM is a Rule Maker or not. It sure is a Gorilla.

disclosure - I hold NOK and QCOM.

Dan
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Excuse me while I go and smash my head against the keyboard.

No, no, no. I was jokingly referring to breaking open your cellular phone, not your keyboard. Don't look for QCOM technology in your keyboard. Unless you have a next generation laptop that may be logging onto the internet via radio waves in the near future. But joking aside...

Qcom is possibly a rulebreaker BUT it is for sure not a rule maker.

I was thinking that the second after I posted my message. Is it or isn't it? I won't have a chance until the weekend to do the math on whether it is a RM or RB. But it certainly does look more to be a RB -- hell, even TMFOtter says QCOM is overvalued, which fills one of the RB criteria.

Yet, as much as QCOM may look more like a RB than a RM, doesn't YHOO look like one also?

Nokia is the rule maker. Why. Qcom's technology is used in prts of the US, Barizil, China and thats it. GSM is the digital technology used by the whole world.

I'll forgive you for your typos in that last quote, with your keyboard being all in pieces to this point. But I can't forgive your saying that GSM is the dominant technology used by the whole world. Or maybe emphasis should be put on the used as in used to be used. What kind of digital technology will your Nokia be using a year from now? Two years from now? CDMA can do so much more than GSM it's scary. I'm pretty sure that the next Nokia cellular you buy will be a CDMA.

I'll do my RB/RM homework later, but I plan on snowboarding for the rest of week. ;)

Keith...
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I'll forgive you for your typos in that last quote, with your keyboard being all in pieces to this point. But I can't forgive your saying that GSM is the dominant technology used by the whole world. Or maybe emphasis should be put on the used as in used to be used. What kind of digital technology will your Nokia be using a year from now? Two years from now? CDMA can do so much more than GSM it's scary. I'm pretty sure that the next Nokia cellular you buy will be a CDMA.

Keith et al...

You may want to be careful here. There are several issues between CDMA and the G3 and G2.5 versions of GSM as well as GSM itself. CDMA has higher (not terribly) data rates but voice quality, from all I have read and personally heard, as well as roaming goes to GSM. There is a tradeoff there. But, both will improve in the long run so it is still quite the horse race.

There is a danger of becoming overly US centric in thinking that goes on here. If it's big here it will eventually be big in the rest of the world. This is a dangerous thought in technology in general, IMO. I suspect that these two versions will eventually be the same open protocol in version G4 if I had to guess.

Finally, a thought that often isn't mentioned in wireless when talking data rates etc. Data transfer takes power. Higher rates means higher power consumption typically in these devices. Hence, for handheld appliances, with battery technology going nowhere particularly fast (reaching the limits of chemical power output). So, there may well be limits on the data rates folks are willing to pay for.

I would suggest you read the posts on the Wireless World and Sonera (SNRA) boards by mycroft and tero who are both very knowledgeable about wireless.

Bottom line, not much out there is the slam dunk the current analysts make of it. And, dont underestimate the worlds ability to cut off its nose to spite it's face in regard to proprietary american standards.

regards,

jgc

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I would suggest you read the posts on the Wireless World and Sonera (SNRA) boards by mycroft and tero who are both very knowledgeable about wireless.

Thanks for the tip, Geoff. I'll definately check it out this weekend...!

And I'd like to thank your Raiders for giving my Seahawks a shot in the playoffs. ;)

Keith...
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Please see my post of today. Have you ever been to Europe?, etc. ... This is a real question. Am I blind or whatr???
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