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No. of Recommendations: 5
At this rate, I will finish 2020 up a few thousand percent!
Yeah!
First day trading cheers!
Unrealistic napkin math projections!


Anyway. Sold small chunk of TTD, and put rest on trailing stop to milk it as much as possible. For all I know, it will stop out today or TTD could go on a multi-day winning streak, so why sell it all at once.

ESTC is a big part of 2020 plan.
Figuring the rest out as I go.
I would like to see a bunch of selling in names that had good runs in 2019 that I like at lower multiples. Seeing hints of that, but nothing stands out as an immediate buy.

Dreamer
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ESTC is a big part of 2020 plan.
Is there a post where you have a detailed write-up on this name?
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you posted to the ESTC thread a couple days ago. You can view it in threaded mode.
Not much has changed on the thesis...they keep executing and doing what they say they will do.

Dreamer
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Hi Dreamer,
Have you considered just selling calls against your TTD shares? For example, last I checked, you could get $19/share for $270 calls expiring next month (February).

Tim
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Sitting on 23% cash.
Will see if tomorrow brings a real buying opp or not.

Dreamer
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Sitting on 23% cash.
Will see if tomorrow brings a real buying opp or not.


Good to be at 23%. I’d expect tomorrow will be a good sized down day in the market but given there is more info to come, likely for many days, I don’t think I’ll buy anything even if largely down. Maybe the market would bounce back the next day, but I’m not into that game so much.

If we see our stocks take significant dives over the course of many days, welp*, then things change.

A.J.

*Welp - The word of the day from dictionary.com was “welp” recently. I believe one can gather its meaning from above and color me disgusted it is in the dictionary.

P.s - I do hope we see quick de-escalation to this affair, but I’m not optimistic.
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This market is ignoring all negative news and wants to go up... wait until Fed is done with injecting liquidity.
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No. of Recommendations: 18
up 10.4% so far in January/YTD.
many are up same or more with bloated stocks like DDOG.

No change in thesis for ESTC...hardly a change since they IPOd.
From a peer perspective, they remain vastly undervalued to something like DDOG.

I love TTD the company...feel like they will give up these gains at some point this year, but I may toe-dip back in eventually as I expect they have good results all 2020, thanks to election year boost.

ZS rebounded, didn't they?
PINS also.

Probably would have served me well to stay in a bit more diversified motion, but I look at it like this:

1. I am up 10%, off a year I was up 60%. I checked and I averaged 40% the past 4 years of 2016-2019..that is not realistically sustainable. NVDA, TTD, and others played a bit part in those results. I am hopeful ESTC provides similar for 2020.
2. I am still at a good chunk of cash 20%+
3. ESTC, even with a run from $60 to $72 or wherever they are now, is essentially a bargain compared to high-growth peers, so upside remains strong.

Eventually, if ESTC keeps running, I will pare a bit at a time.
This year will be odd, I think, compared to last 4, where I may be ok with not being very invested or at least fully invested, for a good chunk of time.

I am waiting for the shoe to drop. Not so much this month or next...but in 2020.
Want to be flush with cash when it does and/or I have to walk the line of riding ESTC and paring it and rotating into something I consider equally safe/upside.

Work is way too demanding right now...so I won't really be responding to questions quickly or posting a lot. Good luck all!

Dreamer
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I listened to the latest Motley Fool Money Podcast the other day. Tim Beyers had some good things to say about Elastic.

"Tim Beyers talks Amazon, Apple, Disney, Netflix, NBC streaming, cybersecurity stocks, and investing in the cloud."

https://www.fool.com/podcasts/motley-fool-money/

(side note - it sounds like they'll be launching a new Service, focused on the Cloud)
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No. of Recommendations: 8
spidey sense kicked in today.

which means literally nothing in the real world, but I did make a couple changes.

Decided to act on the cash in my taxable, and bought more ESTC.
Sold a bit more than I bought of ESTC in my 401k, and spread the proceeds amongst: NVEE, LK, and LVGO.

LK is not cheap, but I think China flu shaved a couple bucks off what was already a late entry. I liked the story before, but shied away until trade deal was done. With extensive monitoring of their population and iron-clad grip, I expect China gets this under control quickly and it becomes a non-story soon. LK will be a roller coaster, but I do think it has legs when viewed over 12 months. If I happen to get rapid increases sooner, I won't hesitate to bank profits though.

NVEE is an infrastructure play, which is way overdue in US. Plus they bought a mapping company, and have a small SaaS play in motion for their data. This is more a value play that I think is set for a rebound. 12-month view, but also selling on any ridiculous spikes.

LVGO is attractive for small market cap and high growth. Optionality seems good, in going after multiple health segments. tchalla has been a big fan for a while and his posts have kept this on my radar.

Still far and away the ESTC show. the other 3 are about a 30% allotment. Cash swizzled around and at about 12% or so.

With ESTC dragging their feet, I wanted to add some options in the mix that can grow and potentially be sold if ESTC is still too low.

Dreamer
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Are u not considering back TLRA?
It raised after merger announcement with ruby .. I can see Beth also recommended recently .. may be good one to try..
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Take a look at LK options, the premium is unbelievable. For ex March $20 put has $.8, or Jan 21 $20 put is $3.5.

Of course, this is for those, who thinks today's price is high and want to wait for the excitement to come down but believe in long-term potential.
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I see below issue raised by Richard chu who has written deep drive on lvgo on SA..

the potential implications of Medicare for All on $LVGO?

I know that it is very unlikely to pass but a FUD sell-off could result should Warren or Sanders become the nominee as most of LVGO’s clients are self-insured employers


Any one see issue here?
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No. of Recommendations: 3
pretty crappy timing thus far on the new moves...maybe not NVEE, I guess.

Meh.

Dreamer is longer-term in 2020. Just too busy.
I will let others win January.

Let's see if I can't make it up the rest of the year!

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 4
this is what I get for not sticking with my "have cash handy for the inevitable FUD/crashes" plan.

oh well.
sold out of NVEE, which was nearly a 20% position, thankfully up about 1% still.
Took a bath on LVGO and LK...although I expect both to bounce back, I just put more back into ESTC at these lower levels.

If ZS can bounce and NVDA can bounce, I expect ESTC will eventually bounce.
Time is on my side, yes it is.

Dreamer
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I hope you don't mind me asking but are ou selling just to get some cash in case of greater bargins or for another reason? I ask in part as following your post on NVEE I had a look at it and bought a few. That they are slightly up in todays market seems a good sign as well as them staying over the $60 mark which in the recent past seems perhaps to be an inflection point.

Deucetoace
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yes...nothing changed on NVEE, but taking from position of strength and buying an unwarranted dip elsewhere.

Doesn't always work out for me, but often does. I usually try not to sell at a loss, but in case of LK it had run so hard recently that there is no obvious bottom if the bad news on the virus lingers for a few more news cycles.

Each year has ups/downs, so I am not going to sweat Jan too much.
In 2018, I was holding TTD (which had plummeted off Nov 2017 highs) and wasn't really rewarded until May 2018 when it broke thru in a major way. I had to sit there and watch others crush it with other stocks while I second-guessed myself a lot on whether TTD was any good and would ever be more than a $2b mkt cap.

I recently sold TTD in beginning of this month when it was a $12b mkt cap, so...yay me.
Unfortunately I didn't keep all the TTD I ever owned that whole time, but it was still a huge winner for me.

So ESTC may execute in early March or whenever next ER is, and maybe there is a small pop and then market yawns and retraces, and I have to wait until June for the market to really catch on. So be it.

Of course, if ESTC holds steady and rest of market collapses around it, I may switch some/all into what I perceive as better upside at that point.

Like a lot of people, I have made good calls on stocks that I acted on and some that I didn't act on. I also made bad calls on both too.

My current portfolio, risk appetite, and approach should not be mimicked by most, imo. But I am in peak earnings, and ramping (thus why so busy lately) and that upside gives me more willingness to be less diversified.

2019 was gangbusters Jan Feb Mar and April. May sucked. June and July were great. Aug Sept and Oct sucked. Nov was great. Dec was mixed but slightly lower. So 7 good months and 5 bad. Yet I came out up 60% for the full year.

I am going to wait and see what happens with ESTC. If I get to June and appear I still have a dud, I have 7 months left to do something about it.

Dreamer
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Agree LK looks interesting but price may not just be driven by a few days or weeks of news cycles. I imagine this scare somewhat depresses their revenue and earnings this quarter so their numbers will be dinged at the Q1 earnings report. So even if this news cycle plays out it could get dragged up at Q4 if they give guidance and Q1 2020 when the numbers are reported.

This too shall pass.... If it LK back close to November levels, would seem quite juicy.
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Dreamer, did you sell all of your TTD?
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I did sell all my TTD, at about $265 I believe. May reenter later this year, if it hasn't run away too much. I think they will have a great 2020 in terms of results, but stock ran so much past two years, that I was just less confident on stock price appreciation.

I sold in Jan to push tax consequences out another year at least.



Today I took the 1.5 day bounce in ESTC to reset back to 20% cash.
Basically, if/when ESTC hits $70 again, I will be back at my Jan/YTD high.

Feel good about ESTC at these levels, and the cash is for the unforeseen drop in something else I like, or in very short-term it could be to take advantage of more pressure if China/virus situation deteriorates more rapidly.

Dreamer
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bought LK about 31.
was down to 27 or so, thanks to virus + anon short seller article.

Then Luck/Citron, of all people, says don't believe the article and goes LONG on LK.
So bounce occurred.

I will ride it, perhaps just really short term.
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I like LK, too. I've layered short puts at $35 and $40, prior to the Coronavirus and the short FUD. I don't know what to call the Citron long, other than acknowledging that it is messing with my mind :) I've always used Citron as a contrarian indicator.

5
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cut LK today...made about 5% on one chunk and barely 2% on another.
Heard they are closing stores per CNBC, due to virus.

Long-term this is a non-issue, but may be more short-term pain, and I would rather have the cash.

I did pick up some ROKU on Friday due to the FUD around Fox/Superbowl.
May hold it for a while, as it is still high, imo, but had come down quite a bit from 2019 highs, and I of course am a big believer in CTV story. About an 8% holding, as I sold half of it today to lock in the profits.

So cash back up to 31%, and mostly in ESTC with small ROKU position.

Dreamer
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