No. of Recommendations: 5
January- IMO
MDB dropped 12% on news Amazon had created DocumentDB. I began to see the competitive environment in the open source movement differently (more competition than I thought) and started thinking of Moat differently. I sold 30% of my 12% position in MDB waiting for the market to see this unwarranted FUD (despite the relative competition for the SaaS portion of MDB, Winner will take most. 2.8B market Cap-is it the winner yet?). —— But more importantly I believe I started to see why Saul sold most of his SQ (perhaps competition, despite their improving metrics. At the same time realizing maybe why he has Zs and OKTA as five stars (their Moat being no competition and both massively integrated into the infrastructures of their customers businesses). So I sold half my 12% position in SQ and bought 20% more Zs and 125% more OKTA (OKTA was 4% position) despite having missed Zs post Q4 ‘18 correction run up near now near all time high at 45$ and missing much of OKTA’s bounce off Off Sept to Dec fall- I didn’t price anchor. —- Unrelated, I began to see how Guardant Health might be like an SaaS similar to Illumina as this portion of healthcare is software driven. Despite my past failures with Pharma and thanks to the posts of so many on this Board I bought a 2% position of GH. — Bear wrote a post about why a company might trade in a range due to elevated PS and despite not wanting to try and time the market, I sold 30% of ETSC and repurchased NEWR just before it ran up 10% in five days - thinking the reason I sold NEWR and bought ESTC was due to their both being after APM and ESTC with roots in DB management more generally enabling them to as Saul says ‘take over the world’.
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