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Jon
Nice to see you posting - I guess you've been skulking around the fleshpots of Pickering over the past couple of weeks !!


Hi Harmy

Ahh! ... so the delights of Betty's Tea Rooms have finally reached the far-flung shores of the antipodes I guess. <grin>

The problem I have with all US companies who have to get their products past the FDA is the enormous time length between announcements such as this and the time a product comes to market. The FDA (to my knowledge) hasn't even had a CEO appointed by the Bush Administration to date.
Agree with you about taking a long term view of the market/retirement/demographics etc. There seems to be a large element of "the markets up - buy!! buy !! " and "the markets down - sell !! sell !! If you follow the herd you end up precisely where you started.


Firstly, Novogen is of course an Oz company that is also quoted on the NAS and on the London AIM in the form of 95% owned Marshall Edwards Inc (but you knew that of course)

The "problem" that you identify with the FDA is certainly evident, and is one of time, expense and uncertainty on the one hand but on the other, it also provides a rather useful indication of exactly what the opposition is doing and to some degree how well they are progressing.

As recently discussed with JR, my focus on investing has tended to be to sift through a very large number of companies in fields that take my fancy, (Biotech, Telecoms etc) and then to concentrate down onto maybe 10 to 15 in each sector and get to know their products, Management and strategies in more detail. When this screen is complete then I think about buying in for the long term.

Having then made my investment decisions, one by one, this particular method thus frees me from having to watch the turn of the markets day by day. Biotech therefore seems to fit my chosen style quite well. If I am looking long term (say 5-10 years) then spotting baby bios in there early stages could bring absolutely enormous returns in that kind of time period. The added advantage is of course knowing what the opposition is up to.

As a particular drug in a companies portfolio (and Novogen have a number) progresses successfully through the various staged trials the share price should rise in anticipation of eventual success. Selling a portion at fixed points of success can therefore limit the downside should it fail at the latter stages. Bear in mind though that the other drugs will be also starting along the same path and so in the early days of the company you are actually getting these for almost nothing.

So there is my view. Do lots of DD at the beginning, place your bets as you go on the favourites, take your time to research more companies at your leisure and then stick with them until you start to take some profit (or even dividends maybe) or sell if they really come unglued. With this method, time is on my side and I don't have to feel like I'm glued to a computer everyday to watch for the fluctuations.

Like I said to JR, for me it is a self-selected pension scheme and not a daily job.

See you down Betty's sometime,

Jon



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