Skip to main content
This Board Has Moved

This board has been migrated to our new platform! Check out the new home page at or click below to go directly to the new Board on the new site.

Go to the New Site
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
No. of Recommendations: 0
jrr7 & fivepigs,

Thank you for your thoughtful responses. Actually, I picked up Peter Bernstein's "Against the Gods" last year with the hopes of better understanding probability and its application to these kinds of questions. The book gives an excellent historical perspective, but "Innumeracy", by John Paulos, is probably a better primer to practical application.

Perhaps I might frame the question of my previous post a bit differently: If Buffett believed his probability of shooting a hole-in-one was 1%, what premium would he be willing to pay for the chance to win $10,000? If he believed his probability was 25%, what premium would he be willing to pay?

Print the post  


When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.