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jrr7 & fivepigs,

Thank you for your thoughtful responses. Actually, I picked up Peter Bernstein's "Against the Gods" last year with the hopes of better understanding probability and its application to these kinds of questions. The book gives an excellent historical perspective, but "Innumeracy", by John Paulos, is probably a better primer to practical application.

Perhaps I might frame the question of my previous post a bit differently: If Buffett believed his probability of shooting a hole-in-one was 1%, what premium would he be willing to pay for the chance to win $10,000? If he believed his probability was 25%, what premium would he be willing to pay?

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