Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
No. of Recommendations: 3
I think those that do not have an original thought or an exit plan out of momentum-driven, pandemic-enhanced, echo-chamber-delivered growth stocks may finally feel some pain this month.

You can have 100,000 cases a day, and while deaths lag, if the IFR is truly closer to .01% for those under 25 or .1% for those under 50, or anywhere near those numbers, then the "who" behind who is getting infected really really really matters. I get most sane folks want Trump gone. I would encourage you not to rely on utter devastation and death as your strategy.

My spidey sense and broken crystal ball both say the US in late Oct will be a very different mentality around IFR and we may have a lot of revisionist history suggesting the lockdown may have only partially helped keep the healthcare system from collapsing, but if we had actual leadership led by science, we could simply have done enforced social distancing with masks and achieved the same curve flattening. And that will truly be maddening. If you are 60-65 or older, while it may seem unfair, you simply carry a much bigger burden have to be more vigilant in your distancing. Those that can't care for themselves as easily (nursing homes, etc) need their caretakers to continue that same vigilant stance. The cure and vaccine will come, too.

100,000 cases a day, if largely in the sub-50 age range, will yield a couple hundred deaths if the IFR holds. The only way the death rate spikes is if the age range of the infections/cases increases. This is napkin math, folks.

So go ahead and pour in the bad news...continue to allow for depressed prices in companies like SPG. My 2H gamble is that the market starts to realize the sky isn't falling, and the overdone run-up of WFH names will either plateau or implode.

To that end, I exited my two weakest convictions at the moment: NVEE and PINS. PINS lasted a hot minute, but both were up in the 5% range, so thanks and moving on. They go on the short watchlist, along with ROKU, FB, TTD, USAC.

If I am wrong, I expect the bottom is nearly in for T and SPG, and any dips aren't too heart-breaking, and will be offset by the continuing positions in less overvalued growth stocks like ESTC OCFT and KC. Stuck with a FSLY chunk in taxable, which I will let ride for now.

I can see a 40% increase in SPG to $110 by EOY. If there truly is a sector rotation, and growth names I either own or have liked but viewed expensive, are materially impacted, I would definitely swoop in.

SPG isn't a long-term play. $110 is about 77% of where it was prior to covid. If the market thinks, going into 2021, that SPG will be at/near 80% or more of what it could/should have done pre-covid, then stock will likely reflect that.

Anyhoo...hello to July...a very pivotal month in 2018 and 2019 as my peaks for those two years were June 20th 2018 and July 26th 2019. Trying to get ahead of it this year, as I have some catching up to do being "only" about 30% up YTD.

Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.