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Just to be clear, a recession is defined as 2 straight quarters of negative GDP growth. For it to be here within 6 months, Q4 of 06 and Q1 of 07 have to be a negative GDP growth quarters, correct?

Of course I know what the definition is.
There are problems however.
Govt manipulation of figures is one.
Hedonics and imputations is another.

My personal belief (not that it will matter to anyone here) is that we started 1Q of negative growth this Q.

As for reported numbers Who the F knows.
We might know 2 years from now when numbers are backward adjusted to suit someone else's political needs.

That said there is a very good chance of .5% GDP or less for a long time coming.

Make no mistake about it.
That will be a recession.

Mish
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