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Yesterday my favorite trucking company, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), made an all time high! Does this look like the end of the economy?

ODFL ten year semi-log chart: https://softwaretimes.com/pics/odfl-03-24-2021.gif

What does trucking have to do with high tech? Tesla semis?

Yesterday morning I was feeling really depressed by the market. I asked myself whether I could and would stay on course. I wondered if the whole Captain's ARK idea was just a lot of nonsense. Then my thoughts went out to sea. What do you do in a storm? The last thing you want to do is abandon ship! Your ship is safer and has more resources than a life-raft! I smiled as I recalled stories of ships found deserted floating in mid ocean. Where was the crew? The ship took care of itself! The sea is not only a glorious place in good weather but a stern teacher that instils self reliance because, as the saying goes, there are no plumbers at sea. I was fortunate to have fallen in love with the sea.

After the market close I discovered Old Dominion leading the pack! Trucking is a powerful Main Street Market indicator. That's how most thing arrive at their final destination, and with Old Dominion being a "less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier" even more so. If the economy is doing so well that even the Fed is worried about inflation, what's going on with our portfolios? After an insane run-up yielding over 100% returns, the correction just had to come, it was just a question of when it would happen. We tend to anchor on the best of times but that creates false perspectives. We know markets are volatile so focus on mean and median, not on outliers -- the best of times.

With yesterday's 6.8% drop, how was my port doing? In mid February my port was up over 100% Y/Y, and now? Up 38% Y/Y and that is fantastic. My ARK is down 26% but it was purchased with inflated stocks so it can't be looked at in isolation, that's anchoring on the wrong thing. Portfolio performance is what counts and 38% is fantastic.

A foolish Fool was complaining about the correction so I took a peek. When looking at long term trends it's important to use semi-log charts where the slope of the chart is the growth rate. The above ODFL data in a linear chart tends to show a hockey stick curve used by bears to instill fear in the unwary. Compare this curve with the fairly straight line of the semi-log chart above:

ODFL ten year LINEAR chart: https://softwaretimes.com/pics/odfl-03-24-2021-1.gif

A reminder, ARK Invest is about growth and The Captain's ARK is about the best of that growth. The quickest way to see growth is the slope of semi-log charts. This is what NASDAQ looks like:

NASDAQ five year semi-log chart: https://softwaretimes.com/pics/comp-03-24-2021.gif

A triple in five years (CAGR 44.2%) is extraordinary. Cathie Wood is aiming at a double in five years (CAGR 26.0%) which is a ten bagger in ten years (CAGR 25.9%)

In conclusion, RELAX!

The Captain


Keep on trucking!
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