No. of Recommendations: 11
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/16/louisiana-governor-...

"Scott Arceneaux, a Louisiana native and veteran political strategist, is here for the runoff focusing on the GOTV/Turnout effort. Most of you know Scott, but he's spent the last week digging into the numbers to make improvements to our field operation for the runoff."

Those efforts paid dividends during the early-voting period, which ended last Saturday. Statistics show black voters accounted for 31 percent of early ballots, up from 25 percent in the early-voting period for the primary. The share of early votes cast by registered Democrats also ticked up, compared with the primary.

On the Democratic side, presidential candidate Julián Castro pointed to some of the preferred campaign topics of the Edwards campaign.

"Medicaid expansion, criminal justice reform and decency are on the ballot," Castro tweeted.

</snip>


That's the key to winning -- appeal to your progressive base and get out the vote. Hoping to change the minds of White Nationalists is a fool's errand.

intercst
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No. of Recommendations: 6
appeal to your progressive base and get out the vote. Hoping to change the minds of White Nationalists is a fool's errand.

Nobody, I repeat NOBODY is trying to change the minds of White Nationalists.

People are concerned that by moving sharply left the Democrats will leave a substantial part of the Democratic vote behind, Blacks, for instance, identify themselves as “liberal” less than half of the time. Lower economic working class people identify as liberal a tiny fraction, and Trump pickled them off with his populist appeal, not with programs from the left like Medicaid or ACA or other handouts (indeed, quite the opposite.)

Liz Warren’s ship is going to founder on the rocks of explaining how to pay for the most expensive and far reaching changes in the medical system ever proposed. (It may be a good idea, even, but it’s hard to make it cogent in the era of sound-bite TV and Facebook.) Mayor Pete is gay. Bernie, like Trump, attracts a rabid, vocal minority of Democratic voters - and *none* of those three (front runners, each) have demonstrated any ability to connect with minorities at all .

Be careful what you wish for, I’d hate to see you give away the country to President Pence. (Trump is gone, IMO. If not through impeachment [unlikely] then through medical [possible] or “economic loss so I won’t run for re-election” [not in those words, but the most likely.]
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Trump won't leave even if he is voted out ("it's rigged!"). He would have to be removed bodily (marshalls??). He sees POTUS for life as a good thing, and he has demonstrated no respect for the democratic institutions that have guided us for 240 years. None whatsoever.

But he's not going to have to worry this election. The Dems are in the process of shooting themselves in the head. It should be so easy to defeat Trump (the most unpopular POTUS in history?). Last I saw 69% of the people dislike him. But he will win because Dems are stupid. They will be right, but it's no good if they lose the election.

I take some solace that we have the House back, and we are winning in state elections. That's no small thing. But we will forfeit the White House without even a fight.
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. It should be so easy to defeat Trump (the most unpopular POTUS in history?). Last I saw 69% of the people dislike him. But he will win because Dems are stupid. They will be right, but it's no good if they lose the election.

I see this a lot. So, what's your secret formula to make it easy for the Dems to win?

Not being snarky here. Really want to know what others are seeing. From my view Goofy and intercst are both right. Which of course they aren't. Only one is or both are wrong.

A) Trump is a one-off radical. You're not going to win nationwide without the center.

B) Hey, the Right is winning and has been for years now going farther and farther "Kook Right." How can we go wrong if we just accept reality and go Hard Left across the board?

C) There's something else afoot. Some other factor/factors or as-yet undecerned variables that won't be known until we know them.
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<<A) Trump is a one-off radical. You're not going to win nationwide without the center.>>




Trump is only a radical compared to left wing ideology. He's a lot closer to being a moderate centrist by traditional political standards.

Of course his political style grates on people. That comes from never having been a politician, or perhaps not being capable of being a polished politician.

What's radical about Trump's politics?

1. Enforcing immigration laws

2. Making America Great Again (it's amusing how much the left hates the very idea!)

3. Tax cuts

4. Protecting Social Security

5. Improving the economy for working people

6. America First!

Where is the radicalism?

Trump's biggest political achievement is to have driven liberals absolutely NUTS by challenging the central tenants of liberal radicalism and orthodoxy, so apparent in Democratic Presidential candidates.



Seattle Pioneer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Mayor Pete is gay.

Now wouldn't that be interesting. A Pence vs Buttigieg for President fight. Both from the same state, One gay and the other a extreme right religious nut. Not that I think it would happen but it would be interesting.

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 7
One gay and the other a extreme right religious nut.

One highly intelligent and believes in evolution, the other...not so much and believes in Creationism.

One served n Afghanistan in military intelligence, the other was a radio host known as "Rush Limbaugh on decaf."

One supports public education, the other pushed vouchers and charter schools, and as VP, cast the tie-breaker vote to confirm Betsy DeVos.

One supports comprehensive sex education, women's reproductive rights, and needle exchange; the other supports abstinence-only education, forced child-bearing, closed Planned Parenthood facilities--resulting in increases in HIV/AIDS & Hep C in Indiana during his governorship
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from Alstroemeria:

One gay and the other a extreme right religious nut.

One highly intelligent and believes in evolution, the other...not so much and believes in Creationism.

One served n Afghanistan in military intelligence, the other was a radio host known as "Rush Limbaugh on decaf."

One supports public education, the other pushed vouchers and charter schools, and as VP, cast the tie-breaker vote to confirm Betsy DeVos.

One supports comprehensive sex education, women's reproductive rights, and needle exchange; the other supports abstinence-only education, forced child-bearing, closed Planned Parenthood facilities--resulting in increases in HIV/AIDS & Hep C in Indiana during his governorship


See it's already getting interesting :)

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 18
Liz Warren’s ship is going to founder on the rocks of explaining how to pay for the most expensive and far reaching changes in the medical system ever proposed. (It may be a good idea, even, but it’s hard to make it cogent in the era of sound-bite TV and Facebook.) Mayor Pete is gay. Bernie, like Trump, attracts a rabid, vocal minority of Democratic voters - and *none* of those three (front runners, each) have demonstrated any ability to connect with minorities at all .

I find this attitude a bit distasteful. It boils down to, "Because it will be hard to sell in the presence of a multi-billion dollar GOP propaganda machine, don't try to do the right thing. Instead, try to win by becoming Republican lite."

Medicare for all makes sense and will save the nation a lot of money in the long run. Anyone who bothers to check the arithmetic understands this. Democrats should try to do the right thing, not the Republican lite thing.
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Medicare for all makes sense and will save the nation a lot of money in the long run. Anyone who bothers to check the arithmetic understands this. Democrats should try to do the right thing, not the Republican lite thing.

FDR was one of the most hated Democrats by Republicans. But he was loved by the working men and women of this country. Heck, even our socialist buddy Telegraph loves him. Because without Social Security where would he be?

That being said, FDR was elected four times and the Republicans had to create a law so that no other president could ever serve more then two terms. So why do you think Republicans are so scared of Warren? Warren can beat Trump hands down.

Andy
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Not being snarky here. Really want to know what others are seeing.

Trump really ran on one issue: immigration. Variants were "build the wall", "they're not sending their best", fear about taking American jobs, and the like. Take that issue away from him. Stop talking about eliminating ICE and decriminalizing illegal border crossing. Talk instead of immigration reform that will be effective and humane (hit Trump with "we have children that may never be reunited with their parents because we can't find them"). I've detailed that previously, so won't again.

Last I knew, 69% of the population doesn't like Trump. His base is unassailable, so don't even bother. But he is vulnerable with marginal/swing voters. Satisfy them that Dems have a plan for immigration that doesn't involve relaxing rules, and they can move on to other issues. That's the effect of taking that issue away from him. After that he's got nuthin'. Talk jobs, infrastructure, opioids, etc, because you've blunted that talking point and can tell people what you'll do for them. But until you blunt that talking point, it will be potent (it was critical in the last election) and work against the Dem candidate.

I will recommend again the Frontline story "Zero Tolerance". It focused on Trump's policies, and missteps (e.g. "babies in cages"), but it made crystal clear that a shocking number of people voted (and will vote again) on that one issue, in large part because right-wing media hyped it into a nation-ending crisis when it was really very minor (under Obama we actually had a net out-flow of illegal immigrants, as I recall). They will amp-up the yellow journalism, and Trump will work people into a frenzy with talk about "crazy Democrats want open borders" unless they neutralize that issue beforehand. Don't even give them a chance to ramp up before you deflate it.

Dems appear to be in denial about the out-sized effect immigration had in 2016, and they are lining up like lambs to the slaughter in 2020. I think only Biden has made a statement in-line with what I'm saying. All the others say little about it, or talk about liberalizing illegal immigration. They may as well not even run if they are going to do that. The vast majority of Americans don't support it.
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