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https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-11-22/shipping-c...
A flotilla of almost a dozen cargo vessels sits anchored just south of Los Angeles this weekend, waiting for berth space. Around the twin ports of L.A. and Long Beach, shipping containers are already stacked five and six high -- the maximum the fire department will allow.

“Anywhere you go, there are just containers everywhere,” said Weston LaBar, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association, an industry group in Long Beach representing carriers who haul the steel boxes to and from the ports. “It’s maddening.”

The perfect storm is swamping the busiest gateway to the U.S. economy heading into the holiday season: Labor and equipment shortages are colliding with the still-healthy purchasing power of American consumers — all complicated by a worsening pandemic that’s making workers and employers extra-tentative. Truckers are struggling to keep up with the wave of record imports.
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If these vaccines all work as Bill Gates predicts, I think we'll see an explosion of economic growth in 2Q and 3Q 2021 due to the pent-up demand of COVID-delayed consumer spending.

intercst
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If these vaccines all work as Bill Gates predicts, I think we'll see an explosion of economic growth in 2Q and 3Q 2021 due to the pent-up demand of COVID-delayed consumer spending.

That would imply the risk in the markets is to the upside....

DB2
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If these vaccines all work as Bill Gates predicts, I think we'll see an explosion of economic growth in 2Q and 3Q 2021 due to the pent-up demand of COVID-delayed consumer spending.

Has there been a lack of consumer spending due to Covid? Seems to me the point of the OP of this thread was we've been on a buying binge. Perhaps the explosion we will see post covid is not spending, but dealing with the bills we've been wracking up while we couldn't do much besides spend.

IP
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If these vaccines all work as Bill Gates predicts, I think we'll see an explosion of economic growth in 2Q and 3Q 2021 due to the pent-up demand of COVID-delayed consumer spending.
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Has there been a lack of consumer spending due to Covid? Seems to me the point of the OP of this thread was we've been on a buying binge. Perhaps the explosion we will see post covid is not spending, but dealing with the bills we've been wracking up while we couldn't do much besides spend.


Every month the government (BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis) puts out a report called Personal Income and Outlays. The most recent one showed that total personal income for September was $19.8 trillion, 3.7% higher than it was in February before the corona crash.

Personal savings were up a whopping 81%.

www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/pi0920.pdf

DB2
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I almost have to buy out of guilt when we go to a store because the larder is full, I have enough shirts to last a lifetime, an extra pair of jeans and extra sneakers. There's really nothing we need to buy, so I'm guessing there are a growing number of others who are not destroying their possessions as fast as they are replacing them.

Jeff
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Personal savings were up a whopping 81%.

But is that from lack of commuting costs, travel, eating out? And how concentrated is it? There is a significant base of unemployed population that is racking up bills. Clearly not everyone's saving rate is going up, or there would be no student loan crisis or fear of rent/taxes not being paid when it comes due. Based on the data from the container ports, we sure have not stopped shopping.

I think there is more than one possible conclusion and not all are rosy and predict increased consumption.

IP
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If these vaccines all work as Bill Gates predicts, I think we'll see an explosion of economic growth in 2Q and 3Q 2021 due to the pent-up demand of COVID-delayed consumer spending.
---
Has there been a lack of consumer spending due to Covid?
---
Personal savings were up a whopping 81%.
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I think there is more than one possible conclusion and not all are rosy and predict increased consumption.


There are always multiple influences at work. Economics is certainly not a hard science.

From last month:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-the-u-s-economy-......
As emergency stimulus programs targeted at consumers expired, something unexpected happened: people kept spending....Piecing together the government data, it seemed to be the case that consumers put much of their stimulus money away and have recently been drawing from those savings. Data released this week confirms that consumers were very aware of what they were doing.

The New York Fed surveyed 1,200 households....Of the stimulus money that went out, 29% was spent, 35% was used to pay down debt, and 36% was put away in savings. The New York Fed did another survey in August and asked what consumers would do with a potential second round of stimulus checks. This time, respondents said they would spend 24% of it (about 14% on essential items and about 7% on non-essential items). Those respondents also said 31% would be used to pay down debt while 45% would be saved....

First, this propensity to pay down debt and save suggests some spending may be pent up. “The stock of savings accumulated since March suggests substantial upside risk to the economy,“ University of Oregon professor Tim Duy wrote this week in response to the New York Fed’s findings. “The possibility of a fiscal package after the election is another upside risk to the economy.“ Add to that a widely vaccinated population, and you may really see the spending floodgate open.

DB2
"I don't need to know what's going to happen next. I just need to know what I'll do in response to whatever does happen."
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The neat thing about a K-shaped economy, whether macro or personal, is that every one can find data to support their claims.

https://www.investopedia.com/k-shaped-recovery-5080086
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The neat thing about a K-shaped economy, whether macro or personal, is that every one can find data to support their claims.

It all sounds pretty loose. It could be something that happens, well, all the time and "depends upon how the aggregate macroeconomic data are broken out".

www.investopedia.com/k-shaped-recovery-5080086
A K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession, different parts of the economy recover at different rates, times, or magnitudes....What exactly this means depends on how the aggregate macroeconomic data are broken out to suggest the K-shaped profile.

It can mean that some industries quickly return to strong growth in output while others see declining activity, or that some types of asset values rise while others continue to fall, or that some segments of society see increasing wealth and income while others lose wealth and income.

It can mean all three of these, or other possibilities.

DB2
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Economics is certainly not a hard science.

Nor is it an easy science.

There is of course the "forgotten man" problem - when A and B decide what C will be made to do for D, the effect on C is seldom considered. (And about five minutes after this problem was first stated, some demagogue started talking about D being the "forgotten man" - ignoring C.)

And then the "broken window" fallacy - that when A and B are patting themselves on the back for what they've made C do, they don't consider what C would otherwise have done for E.

And the "nothing is free" problem - there are costs incurred in this coercion of C, and those costs must be paid somehow - odds are, C will be compelled to pay them too, which does nothing for D or E. And the people who actually do the enforcing are therefore NOT doing anything that CREATES wealth.

As another wise person put it, YOU CAN NEVER DO JUST ONE THING. Everything you do has side effects. The bigger the thing you think are do, the bigger and wider-spread the side effects are - and the harder they are to anticipate.
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Since there were overseas travel restrictions, I think in some areas there was increased local tourism e.g. towns and areas near the major National Parks. I was quite surprised that Yosemite NP still had the permit reservation system booked two weeks ahead, even in late October.

About a month ago, the WalMart electronics section had perhaps two or three models of computers or netbooks or tablet devices on display. Normally, the store has 25-30 models on display. Will be interesting to see if this lack of display models stays the same going into the holiday season.
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A flotilla of almost a dozen cargo vessels sits anchored just south of Los Angeles this weekend, waiting for berth space. Around the twin ports of L.A. and Long Beach, shipping containers are already stacked five and six high -- the maximum the fire department will allow.

www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/chinas-exports-soar-amid-pos...
China's exports in November rose 21% year-on-year, the fastest rate in almost three years, customs data showed on Monday. Imports rose 4.5%, and the country's foreign trade went up overall by 13.6%, with the trade surplus rising to $75.4 billion ($62.2 billion) — the largest amount since at least 1981.

DB2
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