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The 10 Most Recent Messages By Zeelotes

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 3/16/20 10:50 AM
  • Number: 276505
  • Recommendations: 10
Ultimately the timing of lockdown is a political question, at least in Democratic countries. You have to convince or sell your constituents on the absolute necessity of a lockdown. The majority of people have to be clamoring for it before you can
  • Date: 3/4/19 7:54 PM
  • Number: 273629
  • Recommendations: 15
I wouldn't be too hasty in jumping to a conclusion on this. Though, I will say, Jim is the creator of the method and certainly has the right to state its default/standard lookback.

Personally, I ran analysis on:

1. Multiple
  • Date: 2/27/19 2:06 PM
  • Number: 273588
  • Recommendations: 22
Not a good stretch for getting simple, clear, useful information from timing signals.

I'd suggest the best way is to follow these steps:

1. Identify a bottom (trough) via indicators like your own bottom finding signals
  • Date: 11/4/17 3:32 PM
  • Number: 268314
  • Recommendations: 2
There is only one case in the full history where eight are held - 7/1/2006. No cases with nine held. Quite a few with seven held.

Here is the full history with those months holding seven or more in bold. Right now the hold is
  • Date: 11/3/17 5:40 PM
  • Number: 268307
  • Recommendations: 2
lintness wrote:
i've done a lot of reading of archives here and wanted to thank you for all your work and contributions.

You're welcome.

Also, I've added the spreadsheet to my blog for those who would like to
  • Date: 11/3/17 12:30 PM
  • Number: 268303
  • Recommendations: 25
Someone pointed out this post to me so I took a few minutes to validate the results and see if the optimal values could be improved. This is based on 2/1/2000 to 11/1/2017. Based on the various lookbacks and the limitation of the data set, this is
  • Date: 1/9/17 10:03 PM
  • Number: 265078
  • Recommendations: 3
If you consider all 7% Peak to Trough moves in the Nasdaq 100 from 1983 to the present, the most peaks in year one land in January compared to all other months - a total of five.  The next highest is February, May and October each with three 

  • Date: 1/9/17 10:46 AM
  • Number: 265063
  • Recommendations: 2
Year two is hands down the most difficult year in the four year cycle.

I once posted on what the most dangerous period of the four year cycle is. It may be good to look back on that. IIRC the end point is always around October 3rd or so
  • Date: 1/8/17 7:51 PM
  • Number: 265060
  • Recommendations: 6
Going back over some old posts, and fell upon this one. What ended up happening in this case? When exactly did the market bottom?

For the Nasdaq 100 - 4/20/2005 after a drop of -13.56% from the high on 12/14/2004.

For the Russell
  • Date: 3/29/16 10:29 AM
  • Number: 261724
  • Recommendations: 5
Robbie wrote:
The other row in bold shows where I believe the sensibly optimized cut-off value is, namely -0.40%.

I believe that you'll find the optimized cutoff should be different for moving to a defensive position
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Take me back to where I was.
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