No. of Recommendations: 3
Hi everyone,
Ran my screen again this morning using last night's closing prices and data, now that earnings season is pretty much over. What I find interesting is spotting those companies that have been taken private or absorbed into another company. My spreadsheet says "Invalid Identifier" when using the ticker symbol and CapitalIQ, my data source. Of the 2200+ companies in my list, about 3 dozen or so had disappeared as public companies since last May. Not really apropos of anything, just interesting.
Anyway, was looking for companies with at least $200 million in TTM FCF (last time there were so few I had dropped down to $100 million) and whose price was below a 5% / 2.5% / 0% (15% discount) predicted price. As usual, this doesn't include financial companies of any type (banks and insurance). Then I ran the predictor to see what expectations were priced in. I'll be looking more closely at several of these over the next few weeks and will probably buy a few of them, especially given that a bunch of bigger names are showing up in this list.
98 all told this time. FCF and shares are in millions.
9/7/2011 5 / 2.5 / 0 Expectations
Company Ticker Industry TTM FCF # sh Last price Pred price 1-5 5-10 Term
Lamar Advertising NasdaqGS:LAMR Advertising $267 93 $20.16 $24.39 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
General Dynamics NYSE:GD Aerospace and Defense $2,977 362 $61.35 $69.89 2.3% 1.2% 0.0%
L-3 Communications Holdings NYSE:LLL Aerospace and Defense $1,196 106 $66.20 $96.23 -2.8% -1.4% 0.0%
Textron NYSE:TXT Aerospace and Defense $598 277 $15.66 $18.32 1.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Alaska Air Group NYSE:ALK Airlines $277 36 $56.31 $65.12 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Delta Air Lines NYSE:DAL Airlines $1,135 846 $7.47 $11.39 -3.8% -1.9% 0.0%
Southwest Airlines NYSE:LUV Airlines $1,383 804 $8.35 $14.61 -6.7% -3.3% 0.0%
United Continental Holdings NYSE:UAL Airlines $1,639 331 $18.54 $42.09 -12.3% -6.1% 0.0%
US Airways Group NYSE:LCC Airlines $421 162 $5.21 $22.06 -26.5% -13.2% 0.0%
Gap NYSE:GPS Apparel Retail $1,193 542 $16.28 $18.69 2.2% 1.1% 0.0%
TiVo NasdaqGS:TIVO Application Software $207 120 $11.22 $14.61 -0.5% -0.2% 0.0%
TRW Automotive Holdings NYSE:TRW Auto Parts and Equipment $627 124 $40.05 $43.05 3.5% 1.8% 0.0%
Ford Motor NYSE:F Automobile Manufacturers $7,159 3,800 $10.56 $16.00 -3.6% -1.8% 0.0%
Cablevision Systems NYSE:CVC Cable and Satellite $840 285 $17.10 $25.00 -2.9% -1.4% 0.0%
Comcast NasdaqGS:CMCS.A Cable and Satellite $7,528 2,749 $21.39 $23.26 3.3% 1.6% 0.0%
Time Warner Cable NYSE:TWC Cable and Satellite $2,785 328 $64.08 $72.05 2.6% 1.3% 0.0%
Liberty Interactive NasdaqGS:LINT.A Catalog Retail $1,166 602 $15.53 $16.46 3.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Deluxe NYSE:DLX Commercial Printing $204 51 $21.02 $33.97 -5.0% -2.5% 0.0%
R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company NasdaqGS:RRD Commercial Printing $388 188 $14.46 $17.57 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Best Buy NYSE:BBY Computer and Electronics Retail $1,560 378 $24.55 $35.06 -2.4% -1.2% 0.0%
Dell NasdaqGS:DELL Computer Hardware $4,686 1,834 $14.55 $21.70 -3.3% -1.6% 0.0%
Hewlett-Packard NYSE:HPQ Computer Hardware $9,004 2,054 $24.14 $37.23 -4.0% -2.0% 0.0%
Lexmark International NYSE:LXK Computer Storage and Peripherals $311 79 $31.12 $33.39 3.5% 1.8% 0.0%
SanDisk NasdaqGS:SNDK Computer Storage and Peripherals $1,274 239 $37.64 $45.24 1.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Western Digital NYSE:WDC Computer Storage and Peripherals $877 233 $28.49 $31.97 2.6% 1.3% 0.0%
URS NYSE:URS Construction and Engineering $613 80 $34.15 $65.29 -8.6% -4.3% 0.0%
Navistar International NYSE:NAV Construction and Farm Machinery a $566 73 $39.12 $65.58 -5.8% -2.9% 0.0%
Oshkosh NYSE:OSK Construction and Farm Machinery a $285 91 $18.98 $26.58 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0%
Sauer-Danfoss NYSE:SHS Construction and Farm Machinery a $302 48 $41.17 $53.00 -0.2% -0.1% 0.0%
Garmin NasdaqGS:GRMN Consumer Electronics $766 194 $32.96 $33.54 4.6% 2.3% 0.0%
Alliance Data Systems NYSE:ADS Data Processing and Outsourced Se $792 51 $92.88 $131.91 -2.3% -1.1% 0.0%
Computer Sciences NYSE:CSC Data Processing and Outsourced Se $931 155 $29.21 $51.02 -6.6% -3.3% 0.0%
DST Systems NYSE:DST Data Processing and Outsourced Se $314 47 $44.77 $57.32 -0.1% -0.1% 0.0%
Fidelity National Information NYSE:FIS Data Processing and Outsourced Se $1,014 306 $26.82 $28.19 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Global Payments NYSE:GPN Data Processing and Outsourced Se $611 80 $44.32 $64.62 -2.8% -1.4% 0.0%
Lender Processing Services NYSE:LPS Data Processing and Outsourced Se $432 84 $16.68 $43.53 -15.3% -7.7% 0.0%
Dillard's NYSE:DDS Department Stores $420 51 $45.59 $69.31 -3.7% -1.8% 0.0%
Macy's NYSE:M Department Stores $1,404 427 $26.24 $27.90 3.7% 1.9% 0.0%
Constellation Brands NYSE:STZ Distillers and Vintners $716 214 $19.27 $28.38 -3.0% -1.5% 0.0%
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold NYSE:FCX Diversified Metals and Mining $5,513 948 $45.17 $49.39 3.2% 1.6% 0.0%
Bridgepoint Education NYSE:BPI Education Services $234 52 $21.49 $38.03 -6.9% -3.5% 0.0%
Career Education NasdaqGS:CECO Education Services $207 76 $16.06 $23.07 -2.5% -1.3% 0.0%
Education Management NasdaqGS:EDMC Education Services $262 130 $15.96 $17.12 3.6% 1.8% 0.0%
ITT Educational Services NYSE:ESI Education Services $523 27 $71.51 $164.49 -12.6% -6.3% 0.0%
Vishay Intertechnology NYSE:VSH Electronic Components $400 157 $11.04 $21.62 -9.1% -4.5% 0.0%
CF Industries Holdings NYSE:CF Fertilizers and Agricultural Chem $1,811 72 $183.24 $214.55 1.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Safeway NYSE:SWY Food Retail $881 351 $18.41 $21.34 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
SUPERVALU NYSE:SVU Food Retail $489 212 $7.81 $19.59 -14.5% -7.2% 0.0%
AmSurg NasdaqGS:AMSG Healthcare Facilities $215 31 $22.41 $58.28 -15.3% -7.6% 0.0%
Community Health Systems NYSE:CYH Healthcare Facilities $329 90 $19.09 $31.03 -5.1% -2.6% 0.0%
Omnicare NYSE:OCR Healthcare Services $466 116 $29.35 $34.15 1.9% 0.9% 0.0%
General Electric NYSE:GE Industrial Conglomerates $21,389 10,600 $15.80 $17.14 3.3% 1.7% 0.0%
Frontier Communications NYSE:FTR Integrated Telecommunication Serv $914 995 $6.96 $7.80 2.7% 1.3% 0.0%
AOL NYSE:AOL Internet Software and Services $280 107 $15.66 $22.24 -2.3% -1.1% 0.0%
CACI International NYSE:CACI IT Consulting and Other Services $212 30 $51.96 $59.51 2.2% 1.1% 0.0%
ManTech International NasdaqGS:MANT IT Consulting and Other Services $203 37 $34.70 $46.87 -1.2% -0.6% 0.0%
SAIC NYSE:SAI IT Consulting and Other Services $586 342 $13.21 $14.55 3.0% 1.5% 0.0%
Unisys NYSE:UIS IT Consulting and Other Services $327 43 $16.49 $64.28 -24.5% -12.3% 0.0%
AMERIGROUP NYSE:AGP Managed Healthcare $371 48 $47.67 $65.15 -1.5% -0.7% 0.0%
Centene NYSE:CNC Managed Healthcare $230 50 $31.97 $38.88 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Humana NYSE:HUM Managed Healthcare $1,858 167 $76.48 $94.61 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
WellCare Health Plans NYSE:WCG Managed Healthcare $399 42 $45.91 $80.65 -6.7% -3.4% 0.0%
WellPoint NYSE:WLP Managed Healthcare $2,935 362 $64.14 $68.82 3.6% 1.8% 0.0%
Ameren NYSE:AEE Multi-Utilities $882 242 $29.39 $31.01 3.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Xerox NYSE:XRX Office Electronics $1,604 1,403 $8.03 $9.71 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Pitney Bowes NYSE:PBI Office Services and Supplies $829 202 $19.60 $34.81 -7.0% -3.5% 0.0%
Helix Energy Solutions Group NYSE:HLX Oil and Gas Equipment and Service $268 106 $16.49 $21.51 -0.5% -0.2% 0.0%
Marathon Oil NYSE:MRO Oil and Gas Exploration and Produ $3,452 714 $26.51 $41.06 -4.1% -2.0% 0.0%
CVR Energy NYSE:CVI Oil and Gas Refining and Marketin $306 86 $28.77 $30.05 4.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Valero Energy NYSE:VLO Oil and Gas Refining and Marketin $2,278 571 $22.28 $33.90 -3.7% -1.9% 0.0%
Western Refining NYSE:WNR Oil and Gas Refining and Marketin $358 89 $17.84 $34.13 -8.6% -4.3% 0.0%
Graphic Packaging Holding NYSE:GPK Paper Packaging $206 389 $4.00 $4.50 2.6% 1.3% 0.0%
Domtar NYSE:UFS Paper Products $775 40 $78.54 $163.78 -10.4% -5.2% 0.0%
Eli Lilly & Co. NYSE:LLY Pharmaceuticals $6,548 1,114 $36.94 $49.93 -1.2% -0.6% 0.0%
Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings NasdaqGS:ENDP Pharmaceuticals $454 117 $31.28 $33.02 3.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Forest Laboratories NYSE:FRX Pharmaceuticals $1,123 275 $34.10 $34.75 4.6% 2.3% 0.0%
Pfizer NYSE:PFE Pharmaceuticals $22,038 7,802 $19.01 $23.99 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Warner Chilcott NasdaqGS:WCRX Pharmaceuticals $1,047 254 $15.92 $35.01 -11.6% -5.8% 0.0%
Dex One NYSE:DEXO Publishing $449 50 $1.36 $75.99 -84.8% -42.4% 0.0%
Gannett NYSE:GCI Publishing $668 241 $10.55 $23.56 -11.9% -6.0% 0.0%
SuperMedia NasdaqGS:SPMD Publishing $241 16 $2.48 $131.99 -84.2% -42.1% 0.0%
The Washington Post NYSE:WPO Publishing $305 8 $326.05 $326.28 5.0% 2.5% 0.0%
Applied Materials NasdaqGS:AMAT Semiconductor Equipment $2,082 1,318 $11.09 $13.42 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
GT Advanced Technologies NasdaqGS:GTAT Semiconductor Equipment $327 127 $11.85 $21.95 -7.9% -3.9% 0.0%
KLA-Tencor Corporation NasdaqGS:KLAC Semiconductor Equipment $772 167 $35.78 $39.24 3.1% 1.6% 0.0%
Lam Research NasdaqGS:LRCX Semiconductor Equipment $754 124 $37.23 $51.79 -1.8% -0.9% 0.0%
Novellus Systems NasdaqGS:NVLS Semiconductor Equipment $326 70 $28.08 $39.76 -2.2% -1.1% 0.0%
Teradyne NYSE:TER Semiconductor Equipment $470 186 $11.98 $21.44 -7.1% -3.6% 0.0%
Micron Technology NasdaqGS:MU Semiconductors $1,178 1,004 $6.06 $9.97 -5.3% -2.7% 0.0%
Dr Pepper Snapple Group NYSE:DPS Soft Drinks $1,289 217 $37.59 $50.46 -1.1% -0.5% 0.0%
Sotheby's NYSE:BID Specialized Consumer Services $318 68 $36.22 $39.94 3.0% 1.5% 0.0%
BMC Software NasdaqGS:BMC Systems Software $839 176 $39.90 $40.61 4.6% 2.3% 0.0%
CA Technologies NasdaqGS:CA Systems Software $1,309 499 $20.48 $22.28 3.3% 1.6% 0.0%
Symantec NasdaqGS:SYMC Systems Software $1,695 750 $16.71 $19.20 2.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Tech Data NasdaqGS:TECD Technology Distributors $304 43 $46.89 $59.40 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Hertz Global Holdings NYSE:HTZ Trucking $640 416 $10.32 $13.06 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sprint Nextel NYSE:S Wireless Telecommunication Servic $2,016 2,993 $3.47 $5.72 -5.4% -2.7% 0.0%
Telephone & Data Systems NYSE:TDS Wireless Telecommunication Servic $381 103 $24.82 $31.36 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Cheers,
Jim