The key lesson of dot-com bubble is not the valuation can get to crazy levels, and some of the firms may never see those valuation even after 10,15, 20 years, but the investors fear of missing out. It is this investor greed that is the root cause behind the crazy valuations.
I think peg ratio is a good indicator. If the ideal ratio of earnings to growth rate is 1.0, then a PE of 30 requires a 30% growth rate.Start-up companies may well do that well or better in the early days. But it is hard to maintain that kind of growth rate for years.If you buy a stock with no earnings or an astronomical PE ratio, estimate what growth rate is needed to get that PE down below 30.Some can do very well investing in high flyers. But do identify the ones that are speculative and keep a close eye on them.
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