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... if you're following the 4% rule and delaying SS to age 70, your biggest problem at age 100 will be what to do with the excess cash flow.

If You Live to 100, You’ll Need More Than Money
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business/living-to-100-re...

</snip>


intercst
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Zip code and genetics. That's most of it (as the article said).

But it's more than just years. It's the quality of those years. If I'm bed-ridden in my 80s then what's the point? I accept that life will likely become less active as joints and muscles don't cooperate anymore (plus I broke my back...doesn't help!). As long as I can get around and do something, that's OK.

I'm actually planning for it. When we can't travel anymore we'll probably get a dog or two. Then we can stay home with the dogs, and do the things dog owners do. (If we're constantly traveling that isn't fair to the dog(s).) We both love dogs. If that never happens, that's OK too (means we're able to travel until we keel over).

But in a home staring blankly at Wheel of Fortune and being told when I have to eat? Just shoot me.
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If I'm bed-ridden in my 80s then what's the point?

</snip>


I agree. Once I'm no longer able to live independently, I'm going with euthanasia. No "congregate care facility" for me.

intercst
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If I'm bed-ridden in my 80s then what's the point?

</snip>

I agree. Once I'm no longer able to live independently, I'm going with euthanasia. No "congregate care facility" for me.

My FIL has been sick for three years. House/wheel chair bound. Now, for the past three months bed ridden. He continues to demand that his wife take care of him personally. Feed him, change his depens, ets. I have been heard to mutter what a pity it would be if he "accidentally" suffocated in his own pillow.

If it were me, I would ask the Countess to help me do that. Or move to Oregon.

CNC
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Zip code and genetics. That's most of it (as the article said).

How does your Zip code impact your life span? I've lived in my current Zip code for 18 months. Why should that have any impact on my life span? My parents have lived in this Zip code for nearly 40 years. My mother is 99 and still alive. My father died at age 97. I'm only predicted to live to age 87? I was planning on being the first male in our family's history to reach the age of 100.
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How does your Zip code impact your life span? I've lived in my current Zip code for 18 months. Why should that have any impact on my life span?
——————
What that means is that people who live in more affluent communities live longer.

Bill
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I have been heard to mutter what a pity it would be if he "accidentally" suffocated in his own pillow.

If it were me, I would ask the Countess to help me do that. Or move to Oregon.


Ugh. No pillow for me.

Morphine works. Or better yet, OD on dark chocolate.

Come to think of it, not much difference.

AW
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"How does your Zip code impact your life span? I've lived in my current Zip code for 18 months. Why should that have any impact on my life span?"
——————
What that means is that people who live in more affluent communities live longer.


Note: this does not mean that where you live determines your longevity.

What it means is that living in more affluent communities and having an improved longevity both come from the same cause.
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"Only one in 5,000 Americans make it to the century mark.”

-- ---

Your odds of living to 100 aren't in your favor..... 4,999 out of 5,000 won't make it. I'm not really going to worry about living that long!

My longest living relative made it to 94...all but the last 3 months in relatively good health.... two others made it to late 80s, but on my dad's side....the average was less than 80

I'm coming up on 75. Should I worry about another 25 years? Heck, I'm having trouble now trying to figure out how to spend 4%..... (and the last year with the pandemic it hasn't been 2%..due to no travel )......

I've done enough international travel. Few destinations are worth the hassles to get there.....or command my interest enough to fight the crowds overseas. Heck, the travel shows give you a better tour of most places than being there.

I don't need an airplane..... and my spending on my hobby - ham radio - are modest.....

So.....no problem IF I live to 100, but most who make it there are female.... and only 1 in 5000 make it there. If twice as many make it to 100.....that's still 1 in 2500 and mostly female....

Maybe, who knows, they'll be some gene therapy to stiffle the bad genes for longevity and boost the good genes? Who knows? A longevity shot? Eliminates cancers of all types? Stops Alzheimer dead in its tracks? Fixes arthritis and joint deterioration. Keeps your sex life active till 99 years old.....

At the current growth of my portfolio....I'll have tons of money...If Uncle Sam doesn't get it..... or I give a lot of it away by then to side step the tax man.....at death....

What was the ideal? to die with a balance of $0 and the check to the undertaker to bounce? Well, that check should clear....closing out the accounts.....

t.
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Your odds of living to 100 aren't in your favor..... 4,999 out of 5,000 won't make it.

Using the SSA tables:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

And some simple arithmetic...

A man who is already 75 has a 1.5% chance of reaching 100.
958 / 63,272 = 1.5%

For a woman 3.6%.
2,735 / 75,079 = 3.6%

I'm a 68 and male. The tables gives me a 13% chance to reach 93. When I played with the tables years ago I decided 93 was a more reasonable longest case to plan for rather than 100.
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"A man who is already 75 has a 1.5% chance of reaching 100. "

SO?

If you are 75, and do a 'reset' on your portfolio....the 4% is for another 30 years.....you'll be 105..if you are one of the lucky one in a hundred type (males) to make it to 100....plus....

If you figure you'll make it 95, that's only 20 years...and gotta increase your take - otherwise, you'll be in fat city with your portfolio value and your heirs and Uncle Sam will thank you.... spend more....

At age 75, there aren't a whole lot of expensive things I want to buy. I don't want a $60,000 car......really.... my Chevy Malibu is fine for what I do, and after it reaches 175 miles in another 2 years...I'll find something else for $30,000 to buy.....likely......

I don't want a summer place or a winter condo.... just way too much hassle...or a silly sailboat.... heck, you got a sailboat in TX and you get fried most of the summer...same for a big power boat and there is only me....... (plus I got power boats and water skiing out of my system by age 40 - parents had nice boat - and later a sailboat...).....but they lived on nice lake for summer in upstate NY......

I've been living below my means (happily) for 50 years....and it's hard just to 'live at my means'.....


t.
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Morphine works. Or better yet, OD on dark chocolate.

Come to think of it, not much difference.

AW


Now see what you've done. How did you kknow I keep a stash of Ritter Sport dark chocolate whole hazelnuts in my desk drawer. (Just for therapeutic purposes, doncha know.)

CNC
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Living to 100 and quality of life to 100 are entirely different.

I had a couple of grand mothers living to 100 once was fine until around 90 and the remaining years were not exactly living, in my sense. The other one has started having issues. My father is mid 80s and has slowed down a lot the last year and I can sense already that he wonders how quality of life going forward. For now he can drive and still move around but that won't last long if next year is like last year.

For every nimble, spry 80+ year old there are many, many others who are already gone or somewhat house bound. Worrying about living to 100 and having too much money seems pointless to me.
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I don't need an airplane..... and my spending on my hobby - ham radio - are modest.....


My FIL enjoyed ham radio for many years. His handle was Frank. We just sold his 1936 National set*. I plugged it in to see if it still made the vacuum tubes glow but the cord was frayed and it knocked one of the house circuits completely out. Had to replace a number of sockets. The cord also did not survive.

CNC
*If you saw the Netflix movie Kon TIki, they used the exact same model in the movie. Worked well until their parrot broke the antenna. Interesting movie (and book) by the way.
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RHinCT writes,

Using the SSA [mortality] tables:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

</snip>


Don't forget that the SSA tables measure the life expectancy of the average American. If we slice off the Top 20% by income/wealth (which describes almost everyone posting on TMF) and measure the life expectancy of that group, they're living 4 or 5 years longer than the average American.

intercst
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Don't forget that the SSA tables measure the life expectancy of the average American. If we slice off the Top 20% by income/wealth (which describes almost everyone posting on TMF) and measure the life expectancy of that group, they're living 4 or 5 years longer than the average American.

Okay, so shift RHinCT's numbers down by 5 years in age. 5,798 / 72,691 = 7.97% chance of reaching 100.

So, 98.5% or 92.0% chance of dying before you make it to 100.

Not a heck of a lot of difference. Even a wealthy TMFer is very unlikely to make it to 100.

----------

Telegraph, have I even mentioned that you are my long-lost Uncle on my mother's side? Email me and I'll give you the correct spelling of my name so you can put it in your will. Thanks.
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"We just sold his 1936 National set*. I plugged it in to see if it still made the vacuum tubes glow but the cord was frayed and it knocked one of the house circuits completely out. Had to replace a number of sockets. The cord also did not survive."

Yeah, the LAST thing you want to do is plug in a 90 year old radio - for several reasons.

The filter capacitors are toast - and probably a bunch of other capacitors. Likely, if you are lucky, you only wiped out totally the filter caps (lucky they didn't explode) and the rectifier tube. If you are unlucky, you took out the power transformer - which is 'unobtainium'.....

second...radios in 1936 took 110V AC.....you likely have close to 125vac at your house these days....and even if, your radio survive turning it on for a few seconds, it's running at 13% more voltage than rated ..and likely to blow something out....but the likelihood of that are near zero....since problem 1 above limits that danger.....


That is sort of like taking a 1936 car, not worrying about oil in the engine, air in the tires, whether there is coolant, and 'jump starting it' with your 12v battery (they were 6v back then) to see it if runs down the road........ on 90 year old gas in the tank....on 90 year old tires......if it still holds gas......

More 90 year old radios are destroyed or damaged by 'folks plugging them in to see if they still work'.....


t
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"Telegraph, have I even mentioned that you are my long-lost Uncle on my mother's side? "

If that were the case, you'd either be about 100-120 years old now.....so you really wouldn't need the money as your life expectancy is just a few years....

not only that, the Swedish health care system and pension plan would likely be taking fine care of you.....already...that's were all her aunts and Uncles and Cousins were....

If not....you'd be in some nice US nursing home somewhere barely aware of what was going on.....

t.
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How does your Zip code impact your life span? I've lived in my current Zip code for 18 months. Why should that have any impact on my life span

People who live in wealthy zip codes have less crime, including fewer murders. They have access to, and can afford better nutrition. They have access to, and can afford better medical care. They smoke less and are less likely to abuse drugs than (some) poor communities. They tend to be better educated, which leads to a variety of better personal health decisions. They tend to have less physically demanding jobs than a lot of blue collar work, and they live longer.

Rich people live longer and have 9 more healthy years than poor people, according to new research
https://www.insider.com/rich-people-live-nine-years-longer-t...
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telephone: second...radios in 1936 took 110V AC.....you likely have close to 125vac at your house these days....and even if, your radio survive turning it on for a few seconds, it's running at 13% more voltage than rated ..and likely to blow something out....but the likelihood of that are near zero....since problem 1 above limits that danger.....


Hmmm. My voltmeter only shows 110V. Am I being cheated by the electric company? Whatever made you think that 125V is supplied now? Do you think the electric company is stupid, or maybe that somehow (by magic?) voltage has crept up over the years?

Get your voltmeter and check your household voltage. I would bet real money that it's 110V, maybe plus or minus 0.1 V.

I await your apology.

CNC
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Hmmm. My voltmeter only shows 110V. Am I being cheated by the electric company? Whatever made you think that 125V is supplied now? Do you think the electric company is stupid, or maybe that somehow (by magic?) voltage has crept up over the years?

Get your voltmeter and check your household voltage. I would bet real money that it's 110V, maybe plus or minus 0.1 V.


Nope, the standard voltage in North America has been 120V for decades now. Since 1967, as best I can tell. 10% plus or minus is allowable. So anywhere from 108V to 132V is "within spec". You're not being cheated at 110V, but you're pushing the lower limit.

The UPS in my AV equipment rack is reading 123V right now.

https://electronics360.globalspec.com/article/10511/how-the-...
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I’m going to live forever and so far, I’m correct.
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"Hmmm. My voltmeter only shows 110V. Am I being cheated by the electric company? Whatever made you think that 125V is supplied now? "

****************************************************************************

Well you have to admit you sometimes come across as a "high test" kind of personality.

Howie52

Variety adds a bit of spice to life and a little bright or dim to lights.
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DoctorEvil:

"I’m going to live forever and so far, I’m correct."

In the end, there can be only one!

Regards, JAFO
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What that means is that people who live in more affluent communities live longer.

Said another way, people who don't do stupid things succeed financially and in health (on average) better than those who do stupid things.

People who can defer gratification, regardless of what we call "intelligence," are able to do things better for health (exercise instead of sit in a coma in front of the TV, make a healthy meal rather than microwave something made of processed carbs and fat) and finance (put 10% into a 401k and get matching money even if it means putting off spending on fun stuff now). Of course, that's on average, and there are healthy rich dopes that can't control their buying impulse.

People tend to gather along financial lines in areas, hence the zip code connection.
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What that means is that people who live in more affluent communities live longer.

Said another way, people who don't do stupid things succeed financially and in health (on average) better than those who do stupid things.


Awfully broad brush you’re painting with there...

Not everyone who is poor is poor because “they do stupid things.” There are a lot of reasons why certain zip codes have negative health outcomes. Lack of access to healthy food, lack of access to transportation to get better food. It’s hard to save money to move to a better area if your paycheck only covers the basics. It’s harder (I did not say impossible) to learn better when the schools are bad. There are still areas of this country that don’t have good access to internet.

People who are poor often have no choice but to live in substandard housing with mold and cockroaches or lead paint, which can lead to health issues. Bad government leadership —think Flint, Michigan’s water crisis. Some poorer zip codes are located near dump sites, which can lead to bad health outcomes.

I’m not saying that people’s poor decisions can’t have an impact—they can and certainly do. But it’s definitely not the only reason.
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What have you done to lengthen your telomeres today?
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Not everyone who is poor is poor because “they do stupid things.”

Depends on what you call "stupid".

Years ago Thomas Sowell wrote an article on the 3 things it takes to avoid being poor (or at a minimum increase your chances of NOT being poor. All simple: one, graduate high school; two, don't have children till after high school; three, be married when you have children. None are particularly difficult.

JLC
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JLC:"Years ago Thomas Sowell wrote an article on the 3 things it takes to avoid being poor (or at a minimum increase your chances of NOT being poor. All simple: one, graduate high school; two, don't have children till after high school; three, be married when you have children. None are particularly difficult."

I'd add to that simple list - 'DON"T DO DRUGS - every - of any kind"......and don't get 'drunk'....

t.
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Mine is saying 122V at this moment (which is typical here). You are correct, but the OP saying your radio is doomed because it can be 125V is nonsense. Especially modern electronics, the first thing they do is convert to DC and regulate the voltage range they want. Even in the old tube days, pretty sure that was the case.

I think there is some confusion because sometimes people talk 110/220V and others talk 120/240V. I'm not sure where the 110V came from because it's always been 120V (and 240V) for as long as I've been a homeowner (over 25 years).

1poorguy
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What that means is that people who live in more affluent communities live longer.

Said another way, people who don't do stupid things succeed financially and in health (on average) better than those who do stupid things.

Awfully broad brush you’re painting with there...

Not everyone who is poor is poor because “they do stupid things.”



Nowhere did I write what you concluded. That's why I put "on average." Any individual can have a multitude of outcomes, possibly far outside expectations based on a single measure. Some poor people will have been born into poverty and not have the opportunities their middle class or wealthy peers do. Also, some of them will pick up the things that made/kept their parent(s) poor--"Investing is a rigged game, so don't save and invest," or having several kids out of wedlock by several different fathers.

But, on average, people who do stupid things will bear consequences, both financially and health-wise.
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What have you done to lengthen your telomeres today?

Time restricted feeding.
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What have you done to lengthen your telomeres today?

I'm supposed to stretch (specifically my back) every day. So those ol' telomeres get pulled regularly.

:-)
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CNC:"Hmmm. My voltmeter only shows 110V. Am I being cheated by the electric company? Whatever made you think that 125V is supplied now? Do you think the electric company is stupid, or maybe that somehow (by magic?) voltage has crept up over the years?"

Check your new appliances. Most are rated at 121 VAC.

"n the United States and Canada, the electrical power supplied to most homes is from a split-phase system. That power enters your home at about 240 volts, that voltage is split at the main circuit breaker panel into two 120 volt halves. "

https://www.quick220.com/page/cp-voltage.html

The designations "110 volt" and "220 volt" represent an older, out of date standard that's no longer found in new equipment.

"The US electric power network began at 110 volts. ... As of 1984 the official standard US voltage was 120."

https://www.german-way.com/why-is-there-230-volt-power-in-eu....


Now, CNC, your 1936 radio, if you had bothered to check the radio label/serial number plate, would have most likely been rated at 110vac. It crept up to 115vac later in the 1930s.

If your voltmeter shows only 110v at your outlet today , you got a serious undervolt problem or a crappy meter. It should be 121V plus or minus 5%.

Here in TX, the line voltage is often 125vac and I've got two or three expanded scale line voltage monitor meters that agree with each other.


If you live in Japan....their line voltage is 100vac.....

And in Europe...most countries are 240Vac...and only 240vac.... everything plugs into 240v outlets.,..and 50 Hz, too....


t.
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1pg:" Especially modern electronics, the first thing they do is convert to DC and regulate the voltage range they want. Even in the old tube days, pretty sure that was the case."

Nope....no voltage regulation in those old radios....we're talking tube type 90 year old radios. Straight off the line, power transformer, rectifier...and the B+ voltage and filament voltage varies in lock step in the input voltage. As as CNC found out, they didn't bother to put a fuse in the a/c side of the line.

At 10% above normal rated voltage, tube life is shorted 50% as filaments run a lot hotter in the tubes. Circuits dissipate more power and older resistors heat up more and fail as they handle more than nominal design current. Tubes pull more current at higher B+ voltages and run hotter increasing temperatures in the radio enclosure ensuring more failures of other components. Higher voltages across the filter capacitors stress them more than normal (and they are 90 yeas old and should have been replaced twice by now),......

- -----

1pg:"I think there is some confusion because sometimes people talk 110/220V and others talk 120/240V. I'm not sure where the 110V came from because it's always been 120V (and 240V) for as long as I've been a homeowner (over 25 years).

You are correct. The line voltage standard went to 120V/240vac in 1984. Before that,, it was 115vac for 5 decades.

And 90-100 years go it was 110v ac.

t.
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CNC: I might mention I've got a dozen National Radios and their power supplies where needed from the 1920s and 1930s. And another 80 radios from that era (1920s to the 1950s).

t.
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And in Europe...most countries are 240Vac...and only 240vac.... everything plugs into 240v outlets.,..and 50 Hz, too....
---------------------------
And that is why people who travel to Europe need to have an adaptor (probably a two-piece apparatus) to safely plug an electric hair dryer or razor into an outlet.

(Just thought I'd mention that in case they ever let Americans back in again)

Bill
(taking a German class -on Zoom - for when the opportunity arises)
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Yes. it's 'location, location, location'.

Often the 'affluent' moved to the northwest/north suburbs of most cities back east....to avoid the coal fired pollution from all the houses in 'the city' and industry in the city. In 1800-1900, most homes and industries in urban areas used coal. Megatons of it. So the affluent moved away - where the winds typically carried it to the south/southeast parts of the city. That's where the 'lower income' folks congregated - as land prices were much cheaper......and in the SE quandrants of the cities.....

As housing got 'older' it became more affordable to lower income folks as more affluent folks now could either ride some mass transit and get further out of the polluted city - or had an automobile to get them there....

Keep in mind that in 1900, NYC had to sweep up a MILLION POUNDS A DAY of horse poop off the city streets. Every day. Would you like to guess what a million pounds of horse poop smells like? Especially after a rain shower? And horses did more than poop, right? How many million gallons of horse pee?

City living wasn't exactly great - which is why the rich often took 2 months off and headed north far from the cities - or to the mountains or sea shore for 'the season'

even today....yeah..the 'lower income' folks live in worse neighborhoods for pollution. Here in Dallas...well, the lowest cost living comes south of the city center and lowest 'suburban' type neighbors SE of Dallas..... but it is not consistent. There is more mobility. Usually older housing....some still with asbestos...and lead paint....and nearby polluted industrial sites still yet to be cleaned up......battery recycling plants....auto repair/former gas stations....pesticide plants....

I was born in NYC.....mom and dad moved out 2 years later...mom used to tell stories of living in the city - opening the windows..and grime getting on everything. Hang out wash and it got dingy.... that was 1946..... we moved to then 'far suburbs' and dad commuted into city for the next 30 years. In 1948, it was auto/bus transportation grime, plus oil burning heating,hot water, industrial use...and likely still a lot of coal fired power plants and industrial use.

In 1967 or so, had summer job in NYC in middle of summer. Brutal...hot.....and still polluted but better........in Manhattan....glad to get back to the 'suburbs'.

t.
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"And that is why people who travel to Europe need to have an adaptor (probably a two-piece apparatus) to safely plug an electric hair dryer or razor into an outlet."

Most of the chargers for your iPhone and similar are both 120/240 compatible but you need an octopus type device to go from US 2 prong to whatever they have in the country you visit...2 round pins in UK....

My shaver is battery - and charger is both 120/240...but you need an adapter to fit the plug in EU.....

Don't need hair dryer here.. but most of them are 120 only...but if you shop ahead, you can probably find a 240 v for $10 and take along and when done, leave behind.


t.
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"And that is why people who travel to Europe need to have an adaptor (probably a two-piece apparatus) to safely plug an electric hair dryer or razor into an outlet."

Actually, the adaptor is just for the different plug standards. You need a transformer to change the voltage. But most modern electronics handle that via their power supply bricks. Some appliances likw hair dryers and razors have a manual switch for 120/240.
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Personally I prefer auto-volt devices for traveling. They plug in, detect what's there, and convert it to whatever the device needs. I think most devices (e.g. cell phones, laptops, camera battery chargers) are like that now. We did have an electric toothbrush that got fried because it wasn't auto-volt, but I believe our current ones are.
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Personally I prefer auto-volt devices for traveling. They plug in, detect what's there, and convert it to whatever the device needs.

No they are not auto-volt nor do they detect the voltage.

What they do is rectify the AC to DC and feed that to a DC-to-DC converter circuit. This a switching regulator which is an integrated circuit chip and a small inductor. It does not care what the input voltage is, as long as it is significantly more than 5 or 12 volts, and less than the max voltage rating of the capacitors.

US-voltage hair dryers won't work work on 240V and you can't really get a 240-to-120 V adapter that will handle the power. Many hotels -- and certainly cruise ships -- provide 240V hair dryers so that US folks don't plug in a US hair dryer and have it burst into flames.

We had a laugh when we had a young Italian girl come to stay with us one summer. She brought her 240V hair dryer and a EU-to-US plug adapter. Didn't catch on fire, of course. Just didn't do anything.

---
* High power devices like TVs and desktop computers may have 120/240 auto power detect, but that's because high power. But who travels with a bug TV or desktop computer.
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Flying Diver: Nope, the standard voltage in North America has been 120V for decades now. Since 1967, as best I can tell. 10% plus or minus is allowable. So anywhere from 108V to 132V is "within spec". You're not being cheated at 110V, but you're pushing the lower limit.

Thanks for your correction. Thanks even more for the supporting link. It seems only common courtesy to support such an argument with an authoritative reference.

In any case, my issue wasn't caused by the exact voltage in the lines, but in a shorted power line going to the radio.

CNC
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" High power devices like TVs "


US TV sets won't work in Europe for reception - they use different standards, different frequency bands..... PAL vs our NTSC.....

DOn't bother to bring your AM/FM radio either..... they've gone 'digital radio' for the most part......and your US radio won't hear anything but loud buzzes.....

In most countries, data over the air is very expensive....folks use text all the time there - but again, their phones are different than ours - different standards, different bands.

Some US phones will, with a chip swap, work in Europe but you better make sure before, or rent a phone to use in EU. You buy the chip all over EU and they come with so many minutes on them. Most US phones won't work there.




t.
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Years ago Thomas Sowell wrote an article on the 3 things it takes to avoid being poor (or at a minimum increase your chances of NOT being poor. All simple: one, graduate high school; two, don't have children till after high school; three, be married when you have children. None are particularly difficult.

And don’t have a disability.
Don’t have the wrong color skin.
Don’t live in a time when wages aren’t keeping up with housing costs.
Don’t live in an area of the country where the jobs have left.
Do t have an unsupportive family.

Thomas Sowell is admirable. But it’s not so simple and easy for everyone. Never underestimate the role that a little luck has on success.
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Said another way, people who don't do stupid things succeed financially and in health (on average) better than those who do stupid things.

It also helps to be born lucky. Says the white male born to upper middle class stable parents in the western suburbs of Denver.
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2 round pins in UK....

Actually, UK is three flat pins, the top/middle one is at right angles to the other two.

Most of Europe is two round pins, with the ground on the outer ring of the plug. But there's two different specs for the size of the pins (north/south, sort of).
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It also helps to be born lucky. Says the white male born to upper middle class stable parents in the western suburbs of Denver.

Arvada, Wheat Ridge, or Lakewood?
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Thomas Sowell is admirable. But it’s not so simple and easy for everyone. Never underestimate the role that a little luck has on success.

</snip>


Tru dat. The 3-day financial planning course emphasizing fees, commissions & costs that I happened to take as an 18-yr-old Freshman was by far the most valuable thing I learned in engineering school.

intercst
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Golden
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It also helps to be born lucky. Says the white male born to upper middle class stable parents in the western suburbs of Denver.

True. White male, born in lower-middle class. Father was a salesman, so it was feast or famine. And he didn't have much impulse control in terms of spending. Not exactly stable, but not horrifically dysfunctional either.

But I was lucky that I had a brain that works. Got an MS in physics (bailed on my PhD), got a good job, and here I am. People whose brains don't work as well (not necessarily a disability, but not inclined to math/science) would have been at more disadvantage, especially as the job market has moved towards STEM and devalued (or even obsoleted) many jobs.

If any of those things had gone against me (i.e. brain, white, male) things might not have turned out as well. As it is, I can retire any time now and I'm not even 60. Learning investing would only have taken me so far without the good job.

1poorguy (Arvada Sr High)
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But I was lucky that I had a brain that works. - 1poorguy

-------------------

"Life is hard; it's even harder when you're stupid." .... John Wayne
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US TV sets won't work in Europe for reception - they use different standards, different frequency bands..... PAL vs our NTSC.....


Good to know 15-20 years ago or more.
Those were the analog broadcast and line scanning standards.
We've since gone from NTSC (analog) to the ATSC standard for broadcasting digital signals.

However back then most PAL TVs were able to display NTSC signals coming from a VCR or DVD player...but NTSC sets couldn't play PAL content.

Mike
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Add to those thoughts, don't retire in a recession and severe bear market. The timing of one's retirement can make all the difference, all else being equal.
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But I was lucky that I had a brain that works. Got an MS in physics (bailed on my PhD)

Good grief, I took that for granted, but you're right. BS in Engineering, MS in Computer Science. Also bailed on a PhD. My dad was also an engineer. He graduated from DU. His dad was an ME. He graduated from CU-Boulder, in 1923.

V
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Got an MS in physics (bailed on my PhD)

I though I was the only one here who bailed on a physics PhD. (Got the MS in physics, then got a second Master's in Industrial Engineering. Turns out I really should have been an IE all along, because it's a much better fit for how my brain works. I just never heard of it until I was in grad school.)

ThyPeace, now I am.... well, I suppose that "inside consultant" fits best at the moment. I am a "Director of Business Transformation," which means I ask people to change in ways that will improve operations, and they do.
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Heck, I got my EE degree way back when.

15 years later went back and got MSEE in Telecom & Computers......(paid for by company)

then took most of a course in telecom policy =- MBA program - - 3/4 way through when I moved but I got what I wanted out of courses......(paid for by company) .....

Never ever considered PhD in EE....not research oriented.....brain didn't work that way...not that I would have gotten into program.

Knew one guy who did spend 8 years getting his.....long long long way to do it.....and he was a 'brain'......

t.
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Don’t have the wrong color skin.

Thomas Sowell is admirable. But...


You do know that Sowell is black? If he didn't bring up skin color, he didn't think it was important.

JLC
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You do know that Sowell is black? If he didn't bring up skin color, he didn't think it was important.

Of course I know that Thomas Sowell is African American.

Do you not get the basic idea that what worked for one person, or what works for a few people, does not work for everyone? Or do you want to just keep picking away at my posts?

As I said, I think Thomas Sowell's story is admirable, and important. I think he makes good points. His is not the only answer. It's not that simple. Everything is not the same for everyone. A couple of IQ points give or take, the right mentor or a cr^99y teacher in your life, living in the wrong neighborhood even just by a couple of streets, the death or sickness of a parent at a critical age-- whatever--can make a huge difference in someone's success or failure. It's not just don't take drugs, don't get pregnant.

Some people get lucky. Some people are able to persevere despite setbacks. Some people get beaten down and can't recover. Some couldn't even stand up to start with.

I really don't get what is so hard to understand about this, and it's frustrating when commenters and public policy makers just assume that everyone can pull themselves up by their bootstraps and make it. Some people never had bootstraps.
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I really don't get what is so hard to understand about this, and it's frustrating when commenters and public policy makers just assume that everyone can pull themselves up by their bootstraps and make it. Some people never had bootstraps.

Got nothing to do with bootstraps.
The main thing is to not do stuff that leads to failure.
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You do know that Sowell is black? If he didn't bring up skin color, he didn't think it was important.

OF course he didn’t. He’s been a race denier his whole life. Ican’t help but wonder how he got through college, given that he dropped out of school in 10th grade to help support his family, yet somehow managed to go to Harvard, Columbia, and the University of Chicago. Not that he’s not smart enough, I just wonder how he paid for it , given the family’s finances.

I suspect he’s somehow like Clarence Thomas, who coasted through affirmative action help and now denies that it didn’t help at all.

There are lots of people who don’t think being black is a handicap. 99.98% of them are white.
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SMH, at how many want to dismiss the summary of "1st order effects for most folks" by the likes of Thomas Sowell. It would be fun to ask the author of Hillbilly Elegy or Ben Carson to comment.

Why aren't Sowell's top three taken as Capt Obvious type statements that can simply be acknowledged and generally true for the most of folks? Regardless whether for inner city folks of color or poor whites living along the Hillbilly Highway.

There's a distribution of outcomes for all of us regardless of our advantage or privilege.

Seems Sowell just identified fundamental life decision points that, on average, predict which end of the bell curve of subgroup/tribe you will wind in. On average.
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Clarence Thomas, who coasted through affirmative action


Coasted?! LOL_SMH

https://www.amazon.com/My-Grandfathers-Son-Clarence-Thomas/d...
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"author of Hillbilly Elegy"
---------------------

I read HillBilly Elegy, heart went out to that white kid, he had the deck
thoroughly stacked against him ( the deck being his dysfunctional family ). Bless his Grandma's ( Meemaw ) heart, she was the best role model the kid had, and she was a terrible role model. Smoke, eat a crap diet , terrible marriage of her own, etc. But at least she cared for her Grandkids, and
did the best she could for them.

It ain't about race, it's about being lucky enough to have parents who give a damn about you, and
have their wits about them enough to set a good example for the offspring. It most definitely is
possible to overcome a crappy upbringing, but it sure is orders of magnitude easier if one is
raised in a functioning family home.

I need to watch the movie, but it will be hard to top the book. More people should read it,
might lead to a little more compassion and empathy in the USA.
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I need to watch the movie, but it will be hard to top the book. More people should read it,
might lead to a little more compassion and empathy in the USA.


Agreed!!

Another good one to read /watch is “Nomandland.” Excellent flick about a woman who lives in her van because of circumstances and choices she made. Frances McDormand is excellent.
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"Another good one to read /watch is “Nomandland.” Excellent flick about a woman who lives in her van because of circumstances and choices she made. Frances McDormand is excellent."
----------------------------------

I watched that last week, love Frances McDormand's work, ever since Fargo.
Lots of Americans living lives of quiet desperation out there, heart goes out to them.
These people are working, and trying their best, and should be thought of and treated with
dignity and respect.

Barbara Ehrenreich has some good books on what it is like to part of the
working poor in America.
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It ain't about race, it's about being lucky enough to have parents who give a damn about you, and
have their wits about them enough to set a good example for the offspring.


It can be about BOTH. Though, as I recall from the movie, the mother had psychological problems. She was from "poor white trash", but still managed to become a nurse. Then she went off the rails, and her family suffered.

It's still mostly genetics and zip codes. If you're poor, you live less (for various reasons). If you're wealthy, you live longer. In general. The reasons for poverty can be poor/dysfunctional family, lack of opportunity, plain bad luck, mental health issues, and a whole host of other things.
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Ive read these studies. Avoiding addiction (drugs or alcohol), not having a criminal record and being able to hold a job more than six months were also predictors of temporary vs lifelong poverty.

Trying to help some new college grads find work right now. They need jobs with benefits because they’re close to losing healthcare since only the rich or well employed deserve that in our country. We live in a red state which drives the cost up because our leaders didn’t take the Medicare expansion.
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StockGoddess writes,

Trying to help some new college grads find work right now. They need jobs with benefits because they’re close to losing healthcare since only the rich or well employed deserve that in our country. We live in a red state which drives the cost up because our leaders didn’t take the Medicare expansion.

</snip>


The stimulus bill includes a 10% bonus for states that do the Obamacare Medicaid expansion. That would mean a payment of $5.9 Billion to Texas and $3.5 Billion to Florida. The GOP governors of both states have declined to do the expansion and prevent the Federal dollars from flowing to their state residents.

https://www.vox.com/22315225/covid-19-third-stimulus-medicai...

It's a wonder to see racism, ignorance and innumeracy in action.

intercst
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It's a wonder to see racism, ignorance and innumeracy in action.

intercst


--------------

Maybe something has changed but the original medicaid expansion offer was that the state would expand eligibility and the feds would pay for most of the extra cost for a few years. After those few years of subsidy expired, the entire cost of the expansion was the states responsibility. And here is the best part, the state could never, ever, until the end of time reduce that expansion.

Taking on a perpetual increase in cost in exchange for a few years of temporary subsidy is a higher degree of innumeracy as far as am concerned.
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"And here is the best part, the state could never, ever, until the end of time reduce that expansion."

And just how does that work?
If the state makes new legislation which somehow reduces the expansion of Medicaid eligibility, just what federal law overrides that?
Or does it then become litigation and depend on the makeup of the court system?

But it's a nice sound bit regardless of truth content...
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bighairymike writes,

Maybe something has changed but the original medicaid expansion offer was that the state would expand eligibility and the feds would pay for most of the extra cost for a few years. After those few years of subsidy expired, the entire cost of the expansion was the states responsibility. And here is the best part, the state could never, ever, until the end of time reduce that expansion.

</snip>


If you've been told that or read it somewhere they're lying to you.

The original Obamacare legislation paid 100% of the expansion cost for the first 3 years and then was reduced to covering 90% of the cost of the Medicaid expansion after about 10 years. Almost all of the money is coming from the Feds and the state pays very little. That's why it's so crazy that any state would leave the expansion money on the table.

The "regular" Medicaid program costs states between 23% and 50% of program costs. Louisiana gets the largest subsidy with 77% of Medicaid program costs. The 13 wealthiest states get just a 50% reimbursement.

https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-financing-...

intercst
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It's a wonder to see racism, ignorance and innumeracy in action.

How about keeping politics off this board?
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The original Obamacare legislation paid 100% of the expansion cost for the first 3 years and then was reduced to covering 90% of the cost of the Medicaid expansion after about 10 years. Almost all of the money is coming from the Feds and the state pays very little. That's why it's so crazy that any state would leave the expansion money on the table.

The other crazy part is that the Medicaid money goes in part to pay doctors and hospitals in the states that receive the money. The state gets a taste of that in the form of income and sales taxes.
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If you've been told that or read it somewhere they're lying to you.

The original Obamacare legislation paid 100% of the expansion cost for the first 3 years and then was reduced to covering 90% of the cost of the Medicaid expansion after about 10 years. Almost all of the money is coming from the Feds and the state pays very little. That's why it's so crazy that any state would leave the expansion money on the table. 0 intercst


-------------

Thanks for clearing that up. I stand corrected.
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Thanks for clearing that up. I stand corrected.

-------------

I should add, it would be interesting to hear from the Governors of the twelve states that have not expanded. I don't buy that they are dolts just too stupid to do the math. And I don't buy they are evil and just hate poor people and want them to die. They must have their reasons and there are two sides to every story.
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After those few years of subsidy expired, the entire cost of the expansion was the states responsibility....


Taking on a perpetual increase in cost in exchange for a few years of temporary subsidy is a higher degree of innumeracy as far as am concerned.


That’s not correct. States were never to be responsible for more than 10% of the cost.

https://www.healthinsurance.org/faqs/ive-heard-the-federal-g...
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bighairymike writes,

I should add, it would be interesting to hear from the Governors of the twelve states that have not expanded. I don't buy that they are dolts just too stupid to do the math. And I don't buy they are evil and just hate poor people and want them to die. They must have their reasons and there are two sides to every story.

</snip>


They want to get reelected. And if Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity has told their voters that Obamacare is bad, no amount of arithmetic and increased health insurance premium costs that they'll be paying will change their minds.

My health insurance premiums dropped by 60% when I moved from Texas to Washington State. I'm in the same health and live in the same type of suburban neighborhood. The only thing that changed was the quality of the state insurance regulation -- kind of similar to what's happening with Texas state electric utility oversight.

Obamacare Repeal? My amazing story of drastically lower premiums.
https://retireearlyhomepage.com/obamacare_2017.html

</snip>


intercst
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bhm: "I should add, it would be interesting to hear from the Governors of the twelve states that have not expanded. I don't buy that they are dolts just too stupid to do the math. And I don't buy they are evil and just hate poor people and want them to die. They must have their reasons and there are two sides to every story."

I don't know if they are evil or dolts, but in several of the states Republican legislatures blocked expansion even though the voters seemed to favor it. One Republican politician apparently managed to block it because he was unable to attach an anti-abortion bill and several state legislatures wanted to implement mandatory work requirements that were not part of the bill:

https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/status-of-state-med...

Maybe not evil or dolts, but blindly partisan to the detriment of their own citizens, I think.
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I don't know if they are evil or dolts, but in several of the states Republican legislatures blocked expansion even though the voters seemed to favor it. One Republican politician apparently managed to block it because he was unable to attach an anti-abortion bill and several state legislatures wanted to implement mandatory work requirements that were not part of the bill:

Maybe not evil or dolts, but blindly partisan to the detriment of their own citizens, I think. - iampops5


-----------------

Yep, holding good or necessary legislation hostage to attach controversial or downright unpopular amendments is a time honored tradition in government. They keep doing it because generally it works.

The only losers are the poor citizens that government is meant to represent and serve. I don't have a solution except maybe for term limits. Get them out of there before the corruption and self interest sets in too deeply.
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The only losers are the poor citizens that government is meant to represent and serve. I don't have a solution except maybe for term limits.

</snip>


Term limits just gives more power to the professional legislative staff who will be far more knowledgeable and experienced than the elected officials.

The only solution is an educated electorate and a free press. There may be no return from the fact that the nation appears to be descending into some kind of mass psychosis.

intercst
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I should add, it would be interesting to hear from the Governors of the twelve states that have not expanded. I don't buy that they are dolts just too stupid to do the math. And I don't buy they are evil and just hate poor people and want them to die. They must have their reasons and there are two sides to every story.

They want to get reelected. And if Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity has told their voters that Obamacare is bad, no amount of arithmetic and increased health insurance premium costs that they'll be paying will change their minds.

Some of those states are still fighting the Civil War, Texas being chief among them. Texas (and some others of the Confederacy) have a fierce, neurotic need to express their independence from the laws and regulations of the USA. Isn't there an adage about cutting off ones nose to spite the face?

CNC
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I suspect a lot of is ideology. However, I'm in very red AZ. Gov Brewer (at the time), much to my surprise (and with some opposition) expanded Medicaid anyway. She is the one who wagged her finger at Obama when he visited, like she was scolding him.
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However, I'm in very red AZ.

Very red? 4 Republican and 5 Democratic representatives, 2 Democratic senators, and the 2020 electoral votes went to Biden. While the Legislature is Republican, it's just barely so - 16 - 14 in the AZ senate and 31 - 29 in the House. While AZ may have been very red in the past, it seems pretty purple, edging toward blue, now.

AJ
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That's why it's so crazy that any state would leave the expansion money on the table.

Agree, but anything the sponsor proposed got a negative acceptance by certain governors and legislatures.

Pete
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Yes, I should have been clearer. At the time of Medicaid expansion we were VERY red. We are arguably purple now, though I'm still surprised we went for Biden. Before the election there was a sea of Trump flags everywhere (and Trump bumper stickers).

Also, our governor is a Trumpie. He still had enough sense of duty not to overturn our results last November, but otherwise he supported Trump most of the time. And he just declared that restaurants and other businesses can be at full capacity, even as the new variant is starting to sweep the nation (i.e. it is responsible for more infections than the original).

And I have no idea how I can dovetail this into "retirement investing", so I should probably stop before going any further. :-)

Though I did just read in the NYT that the relief bill includes increasing ACA subsidies, and raising the wealth of people eligible to receive them.
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. . the nation appears to be descending into some kind of mass psychosis.

Wrong verb tense. Should read " . . . the nation has descended into . . mass psychosis."

vez
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>>. . the nation appears to be descending into some kind of mass psychosis

Wrong verb tense. Should read " . . . the nation has descended into . . mass psychosis."

vez


------------------

Heh. The problem is the parties cannot agree on which side is psychotic.

The genuinely psychotic are probably the voters who allow this slow motion train-wreck to continueg. Math will eventually force a solution that neither side will like.
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I should add, it would be interesting to hear from the Governors of the twelve states that have not expanded. I don't buy that they are dolts just too stupid to do the math. And I don't buy they are evil and just hate poor people and want them to die. They must have their reasons and there are two sides to every story.

It's their voters that are the dolts. E.g., trailer park denizens voting for corporate tax cuts and repeal of the death tax...
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