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Loki, I wouldn't do that. Everything written about the "covenant-lite" junk bonds that were issued over the past 3 years makes me shudder.

Like the subprime mortgage bonds, which defaulted in higher-than-modeled percentages, I strongly believe that the next recession will cause a higher-than-modeled percentage of junk bonds to default. Even now, I don't think the risk is fully priced in.


The piece you posted was certainly suggesting junk. I'd still like to see junk drop some more before thinking about jumping, but in my 403(b) options are limited and I don't want to be stuck with declining short term interest rates. I'm still counting on interest rates staying higher than Wall Street wants, but the economy may be in real trouble for reasons that have nothing to do with the big legue day traders having gotten in over their heads and now wanting to be bailed out. The real economy is seeing a declining standard of living because laissez faire magic has failed to produce new and better jobs to replace lost good jobs (which is because magic and mythology do not produce new and better jobs). Borrowing has substituted for better jobs, but it is not a lack of money for borrowing that is the issue. It is the underlying loss of middle class jobs.
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