No. of Recommendations: 23
Been using the great (and somewhat hobbled) Gritton backtester;
this screen might be of interest to some.  
Good returns, especially 2018.

First of all, it's a simple SOS (screen of screen of 2 screens).
Looking at the graph of the portfolio, one can see that it appears that
some form of bear catcher just might smooth out the last 2 big
downturns.

So, I then took that screen and put it into the switching screen
that gets out when the S&P has a downturn. Maybe other bear catchers
would do better, but this is pretty simple.


Here's the comparison of 
- the basic buy and hold S&P
- the SOS screen
- the SOS screen that used a switch to cash when the
S&P was declining.
Shows the annual growth and the growth of $10K start.

					                SOS	
					               Screen	
			      SOS                      %	
	S&P		     Screen		      with	
	%	$10,000	         %	$10,000	      Switch     $10,000
2003	23	 12,300 	88	 18,800 	62	 16,200 
2004	9	 13,407 	38	 25,944 	9	 17,658 
2005	8	 14,480 	32	 34,246 	32	 23,309 
2006	14	 16,507 	17	 40,068 	17	 27,271 
2007	2	 16,837 	14	 45,677 	14	 31,089 
2008	-33	 11,281 	-37	 28,777 	0	 31,089 
2009	26	 14,214 	11	 31,942 	20	 37,307 
2010	14	 16,204 	69	 53,982 	32	 49,245 
2011	3	 16,690 	2	 55,062 	6	 52,200 
2012	17	 19,527 	13	 62,220 	8	 56,376 
2013	28	 24,994 	42	 88,352 	42	 80,053 
2014	13	 28,244 	17	 103,372 	17	 93,662 
2015	2	 28,809 	-15	 87,867 	6	 99,282 
2016	14	 32,842 	27	 111,591 	41	 139,988 
2017	22	 40,067 	28	 142,836 	28	 179,184 
2018	-4	 38,464 	18	 168,546 	18	 211,438 


Basic SOS:

https://www.backtest.org/SS(Value_at_the_Top)(Gentle_Screame...

With switching added:

https://www.backtest.org/SWsp()(SS(Value_at_the_Top)(Gentle_...

(press "RUN" to fire it up...)

To find the latest stock picks you can go to the periodic 
publishing like this recent one from Bill2m (thank you!)

https://boards.fool.com/si-rankings-2019-01-26-34119401.aspx...

Value_at_the_Top            CHMI   CIM  LUKOY  MPW   CSIQ  ESIO ANAT  ELP   EFC  GHC
GS_Mungo                    CYBR    FN   LRN   MEET  AUDC

From this point you can look at these and pick the ones that you "like the best"
(Zack's rating, industry, technicals (CCI, MACD), mkt. cap., fundamentals, etc.)
and go off the grid, or  
do the mechanical method of performing an SOS of 2 screens
and hold tight for the month...
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.