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Lots of people are having that issue:

IRS changed the withholding rules to reduce the number of people getting refunds, at least partially to juice up the apparent size of the tax cut in people's take home pay.

Yup. I noticed this when the revised Notice 1036 came out early in 2018 (they did the regular ones in December 2017...but then the new tax law was passed later in December...)

Originally I just assumed the issue was because of the rush job the IRS had to do in getting the new tables out, but as you note, there was apparently at least some political push to have lower withholding relative to liability overall so more would be due at filing (and probably to make the tax cuts "look better" prior to the 2018 mid-terms. If that was at least part of the reason, it would go under "epic fail").

I adjusted our stuff because spreadsheets, but as tconi noted, I had a mistake in one of mine (pulled in an incorrect value by not updating a formula properly) so we owed slightly more at filing than I'd initially calculated. Not a *big* deal, but still annoying.

We fall into the sizable category of people with higher taxable income than last year due to the changes, but lower tax liability. We also benefit from the expansion of the child tax credit (both in amount and AGI phaseout level), which...well, one could argue that maybe there would be better places to put that from a policy perspective.

-synchronicity, doesn't earn a lot of money
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