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No. of Recommendations: 4
Like many investors, I’m suffering losses as the economy continues to crash. In the spreadsheet in which I track my bond holdings, I code anything losing -1% to -4% in pink. Anything losing -5% to -9% in rose. Anything losing -10% or more in red. (I let winners take care of themselves.) During the summer, there was very little color in my spreadsheet. Now, there’s lots of ugly numbers, as can been seen below. But I got to wondering just how bad the damage really was, because position-size matters, as well as the loss or gain numbers. E.g., if the win is big, but the position is tiny, then its impact on the portfolio is small. Same-same with losses. If the loss is big, but the position is small, then the loss is annoying but nothing to panic about.

On a dollar-weighted basis, this seems to be my present score-card:
-60% of the portfolio (174 positions) is still up by an average-gain of 17.6% from my entry-price.
-4% of the portfolio (7 positions) is flat from my entry-price.
-36% of the portfolio (93 positions) is down by an average-loss of (-9.7%)

In other words, across the whole portfolio, I’m still up by an average-gain over my entry-price of 7.2%, plus I’m still receiving coupons. I’m not happy about my losses, and I’m getting worried. But I’m not yet panicking.

In the list below, the bonds are coded according to whether they are Agencies, Munis, or Corporates. By default, agencies tend to be upper-tier credits, and they are holding up well. Munis offer the same range of credit-worthiness that corporates do. But they, also, are holding up well. Where I’m taking the worst beatings are in bankster bonds and nearly any of the industrials I’ve bought in the past 6 to 9 months where I was stretching for yield. (By contrast, nearly everything bought coming off the 2009 lows is hugely profitable.)


P/L Mdy SP Type Issuer
----------------------------------------------
126% Ba3 BB Hanson
117% - B- AMD
102% B3 CCC E*Trade
100% Ba2 BBB- Union Carb
97% A2 A Nations
83% B3 BB+ Zions
78% Ba3 B+ Seagate
77% - - A FICO
77% Ba1 BBB- Willamette
76% - - TVA
76% - - A FICO
73% Baa2 BBB Time Warner
73% Baa2 BBB- CBS
71% - - Cabco
63% Baa3 BBB- Alcoa
58% Baa2 BBB Jefferies
57% Ba2 BB- Trinity
57% Aaa NR Intl Bk
54% Ba3 B+ Ford
54% Ba1 BBB Mead
53% - - A FNMA
51% Aa2 AA+ GE
51% - - A TVA
51% Aa2 AA+ GE
51% - - A FICO
48% B3 B+ Gibraltar
48% Ba2 BBB Masco
48% - - A TVA
46% Caa1 B- Smithfield
45% Baa3 BBB Dow Chem
44% Ba1 BBB- WeyCo
44% Aa2 AA+ GE
42% Aaa AAA A Israel
42% B3 BB+ Zions
41% Baa3 BBB- Alcoa
39% - - A TVA
39% - A- AllTel
39% - - A TVA
39% WR NR ShopKo
38% Ba3 B+ Ford
38% Ba3 BB- Sears
38% Baa2 BBB AOL
37% - A A FNMA
37% - - A TVA
35% - - Cabco
34% Ba3 B+ Ford
34% Ba1 BBB- WeyCo
33% A2 B- Caterpillar
33% A2 A Caterpillar
32% A2 A Boeing
32% Ba1 BBB- WeyCo
31% B3 BB+ Zions
31% B3 BB+ Zions
30% Aa2 AA+ GE
29% B1 BB+ Leucadia
29% - - A FICO
29% B3 BB+ Zions
29% - - A FICO
28% Baa3 BBB MSI
28% Baa1 A- Anheuser
28% Baa3 BBB MOT
28% - - A FICO
27% A3 - A Transamerica
26% WR A- AT
26% Ba3 BB- Sears
26% A2 AA- Hancock
26% - - Cabco
26% B2 B+ CIT
25% - - Cabco
25% Baa3 BB Qwest
24% - - Wrigley
24% Ba1 BBB- Anadarko
24% A2 A- BellSouth
23% Baa1 A- Barrick
22% Ba1 BBB- SLM
22% - - Cabco
22% - - A TVA
22% Ba1 BBB- SLM
22% Baa3 BBB Union Carb
21% Aa2 AA+ GE
21% Aa3 A+ Bear Sterns
21% A2 BBB+ NU
20% B3 B- Jamaica
20% B1 B+ GM
20% Baa3 BBB- Alcoa
20% - - A TVA
19% Baa3 BBB Arcelomittal
19% - - A FICO
19% WR NR WM
19% Baa3 BBB- Fairfax
19% A2 A Nations
18% - - A TVA
18% Aa3 AAA Geico
18% Baa1 A- SunAmerica
18% Ba3 BB- Sears
17% Aa1 NR M Portland
17% A1 A+ CAF
17% B3 B+ Blythe
17% Aa3 A+ Bear Sterns
16% Aa3 A+ BSC
15% Aa3 A+ M Monterey
15% Ba3 B+ Ford
15% A2 A- Aflac
15% B1 C Banponce
15% Aa3 AA+ M Piedmont
14% - - Cabco
14% - - M Buckeye
13% Ba2 BB RCL
13% A2 A Atlantic
12% Aa2 AA- Toyota
12% WR NR WM09
12% A2 A Merrill
12% A3 A- Rochester
11% - BBB- M Klamath
11% A1 A- M Chicago
10% B1 BB- Scholastic
10% Aa2 AA+ GE
10% Aa2 AA- BP
9% B3 BB+ Zions
9% Caa1 CCC+ THC
9% B2 B- Block
9% B3 CCC Ford
9% A2 A Merrill
8% Ba2 BBB- SLM
8% Ba1 BBB- WeyCo
8% Wr BB+ M Allen Park
8% Caa1 CCC+ MGM
7% - - M Lee Lake
7% Baa1 BBB+ M Hermiston
7% - - M Michigan
7% Aa3 A+ M NJ
7% Aa1 NR M Portland
6% Aa2 AA+ GE
6% Ba1 BBB- Willamette
6% Caa1 B- Allis-Chalmers
5% A3 A- M OR St Fac
5% Ba3 BB- Sothebys
5% B3 CCC+ TOY
5% Aa2 AA+ GE
5% Ba1 BBB- WY
5% A2 A BAC
5% Aa3 A- Pepsico
5% Baa1 A- SunAmerica
4% Aa2 AA M City of Portland Sewer
4% B2 NR ABS
4% B3 CCC+ Nova Chem
4% B1 B- Belo
4% Caa2 CCC Reddy Ice
4% Nr BBB+ M OR St Fac
3% NR NR M Harris
3% - AA- M Port Ptlnd
3% Baa1 A Countrywide
3% WR - M Santa Maria
3% Aa2 AA+ GE
3% Ba3 BB- SHLD
3% Caa1 B- Wendy's
3% Ba2 BB RCL
3% B1 BB- Nova Chem
3% B1 B Belo
3% Ba2 BBB- M OR Econ
2% B3 BB+ Zions
2% Ba3 BB- Sears
2% Baa1 BBB M Port Seattle
2% B1 B+ ALLY
2% Ba2 BB Bristow
1% Caa1 CCC+ THC
1% Ba3 BB- Navios
1% B2 B Supervalu
1% NR NR M Alaska
1% A1 A M SF
1% A2 NR M Portland
1% NR NR Delta Gas
1% AAA - KFW
1% Aa2 AA+ GE

0% Caa1 B McMoran
0% Ba1 BBB- SLM
0% Baa3 BBB- Genworth
0% - AA+ M Nebraska
0% A3 BBB- Goldman
0% Caa1 BB- Am Rail
0% Ba3 BB- Navios

-1% A1 NR M Albany
-1% B3 B United Maritime
-1% Caa1 B- Tenneco
-1% B1 B+ GM
-1% Aa2 - M OR Hsg
-1% Ba3 BB- Sprint
-1% Aaa NR M OR Hsg
-1% B1 C Bausch
-1% B1 B+ Goodyear
-1% A2 A Morgan Stanley
-2% B1 BBB- Int'l Lease
-2% Baa3 BBB- Genworth
-2% B3 B Pep Boys
-2% - B2 Commercail
-2% A2 A Morgan Stan
-2% Ba3 BBB- Icahn
-3% Ba3 BB- Ultrapetrol
-3% B1 BBB- Int'l Lease
-3% A2 A Nations
-3% - BB+ Zions
-3% Baa3 BBB- US West
-3% B2 B Overseas
-3% B2 B+ Levi
-3% B2 BB Teekay
-3% B1 BB AES
-4% A3 A- BAC
-4% NR NR M Indepden
-4% B1 B+ GMAC
-4% Aa1 AA+ M OR Elderly
-4% B1 BB- Gulfmark
-4% NR NR Barclays
-4% B3 B Cooper
-4% B3 B- Burger King
-5% Baa3 BBB US West
-5% Ba1 BBB- SLM
-5% Ba3 BB- Sears
-5% Caa1 B McMoran
-6% B1 B+ GMAC
-6% B1 BB Teekay
-6% Caa3 CCC NUVINV
-6% B1 B+ GMAC
-7% B1 B+ GMAC
-7% Baa2 A- M Alameda
-7% - - Sterlite
-7% Caa3 CCC Momentum
-8% B2 BB Oshkosh
-8% Baa2 A- BAC
-8% B1 B+ Ship Financial
-9% Caa1 B- Colt
-9% - - M Smyrna Hosp
-10% NR NR M OR Hsg
-10% Ba1 BBB- SLM
-10% Ba1 BB+ BAC
-10% Caa2 CCC Solo
-11% Baa2 A- BAC
-11% A3 A- BAC
-11% A3 A- Merrill
-11% Caa1 B Terex
-12% B3 - Mcjunkin
-12% Caa1 B- Wendy's
-12% B3 CCC+ Radian
-12% B1 B+ GMAC
-12% A3 A- BAC
-13% B2 B Edison
-13% B3 B+ CIT
-14% - - JA Solar
-15% Ba3 BB- Tenneco
-15% B3 B- Mueller
-15% Caa3 CCC Ahern
-16% B2 BB- Venezuela
-16% B3 B+ CIT
-16% Caa2 CCC Solo
-17% - - DryShip
-17% B3 B+ CIT
-18% B3 B+ CIT
-18% B2 B Edison
-19% Caa1 B Maxcom
-20% B2 B+ CIT
-21% Caa2 CCC+ First Data
-22% B2 B Edison
-22% - - JA Solar
-24% - - JA Solar
-24% - - Pilgrims
-26% - CC Texas Utility
-28% Ba3 B- MBIA
-30% Aa3 A+ UBS
-31% - - Energy
-33% Ba3 B- MBIA
-47% B2 B+ CIT
-53% - - Suntech
-55% - - Suntech
-67% Caa1 C Norse
-100% - - Grupo
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