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lowstudent: I kind of expect this election will show more of a Dem advantage as we saw in 2010 since nothing has changed since then as far as the Dems have been concerned.

I see nothing to have significantly changed the tide since then. With the caveat, of course, that this is a Presidential election

But that is a huge caveat. Dem turnout and black turnout is typically higher in Presidential elections. If turnout model is like 2010, then Romney runs away with it, obviously.
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