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<<I wonder how he views the difference in the high prices over the past few months to the lows they hit and the valuation differences>>

Geoffrey Moore said:

It is critical that we never disconnect equity investing from financial instrument investing. Remember that in both cases the underlying instrument is valued as "the present value of its future returns discounted for risk." The difference with a growth stock is that investors temporarily forego receiving their present returns, preferring to reinvest them to gain an even higher rate of return some time in the future. As long as the perception is that the pie is getting bigger, it is better to be in equity because of its ability to grow bigger (something a bond does not have). But eventually the equity must "pay off" at this higher rater of return.

What makes this very confusing is that a stock never exists in the present. It is always a bet on a future outcome. In an important way stocks only exist in the future, not in the present. This can set your head spinning, but it is deeply and fundamentally true. Practically, it turns out not to affect buy and sell decisions in any new way, but philosophically it is a biggie.


Add to that a comment made by briefing.com regarding the speed with which momentum investors run up shares to levels that represent value at some distant point in the future - "Why buy a ticket to New York if you're already in New York? - and you have to at least ponder the wisdom of jumping in at any old point and hoping that everything takes care of itself.
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