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<<The emphasized statement appears wrong. In option 1, you pay taxes now on the current value of your account. In option 2, you pay taxes later on the value of your account as augmented by your investment gains, which will far outstrip (presumably) inflation. Thus, it seems to me that the present value of the taxes you risk paying down the line by not converting substantially exceeds the present value of the taxes you will pay by converting.>>

This was discussed in detail a few months ago. Due to the commutative laws of multiplication, the net results are exactly equivalent (assuming the same tax rate--which is a good assumption).

Paying the tax on the convertion from other money changes (and muddies) the picture somewhat. But then you have to consider the gains that you forgo on the money that went for taxes instead of being invested. Most analyses don't do this properly.

Truly, this ain't easy. And in most cases of complexity, the neophyte is a disadvantage. The first goal of a con artist is to confuse the mark.

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