No. of Recommendations: 4
It's basically political but, Mark Cuban couches the retoric in terms of (his POV) how work/jobs affect the economy.

Cuban
- after being displaced what are you going to go back and learn how to do?

- in 10 years, there will be a greater demand for Liberal Arts majors (English majors, philosophy, foreign language majors [? What? I personally see translation being automated, too] than for Programming or Engineering majors. When data is being spit (by automated processes) you need a person who is a "free thinker" (rahter than a narrow, rigid thinker) to make sense of the out put.



https://youtu.be/jXvFraQw01Q

Much of the interview includes clips of Andrew Yang explaining how he sees "work" changing.

- not only are many jobs being automated, but more importantly automation is being automated (those humans building the robots and writing the code will be out of work because writing code and building machines is automated).

- humans are not infinitely malleable ie many displaced workers CANNOT be retrained. Example: truckers cannot be retrained to computer programming.

- displaced workers still want to work. But their skill set is no longer valuable enough to the market, to allow the worker to earn a living wage. (Many can not find jobs, so they go (permanently?) on disability.

- are they truly disabled? Anyone who works in a factory for a decade will have some kind of damage. (I particularly liked this statement!)

-retrain, re-skill, = higher quality work. Remember that from macro economics? That course where you got a B. PARAPHRASED. Yang contends that retrain and re-skill as promoted NO LONGER FUNCTION.

- government retraining programs are between 0-15% effective. Ie retraining doesn't work for most people.

- GDP has not been updated in decades. It does not adequately value work such as housewife/full-time-mom. Military spending is overvalued in GDP.


How about a Yang/Cuban ticket?

🙂
ralph
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I'd prefer they run the economy & safety net rather than the country. Perhaps we need a new cabinet post: Secretary of the Middle Class?
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The only circumstances that would lead me to vote for Mark Cuban would be if the only alternative were Trump.

For the life of me, I don't know why so many Americans worship arrogant rich CEOs or treat them like teenagers treat rock stars. And his statement: When data is being spit (by automated processes) you need a person who is a "free thinker" (rahter than a narrow, rigid thinker) to make sense of the out put. is about as ignorant an assessment as I can imagine.
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No CEOs, no generals, no lobbyists. And I'm mostly down on generic "businessmen" too. You can't run government like a business because, well, it's not a business.
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humans are not infinitely malleable ie many displaced workers CANNOT be retrained. Example: truckers cannot be retrained to computer programming.

False choice. Truckers can be retrained into dozens, perhaps hundreds of other jobs. Freight loaders, dispatchers, line workers making windmill blades, backhoe or heavy equipment operators, motor coach delivery drivers, welders, garbage truck operators, and on. How do I know this? Because it’s already happened a thousand thousand times. https://www.zippia.com/advice/exciting-jobs-former-truck-dri...

I am reminded that when elevators were invented, every single at a commercial establishment had an operator, usually dressed in a nice suit, welcoming people onto the elevator and stopping the machine at the appropriate height, occasionally jostling the car up and down to eliminate any floor differential. People demanded it. They demanded it first thing in the morning and last thing at night. If your building or hotel had multiple lifts, you had a squadron of shifts, possibly round the clock, possibly including weekends. Then came automation, and now we push our own buttons.

Oh the humanity! All those elevator operators, probably walked off the ledge and committed suicide! Or, perhaps they just found another job. Maybe it didn’t pay as well, or maybe it did, but society went on without interruption. I suspect the same will happen if/when automated trucks become practicable, though like with elevators, there will still be people who need to service them, license them, register them, manufacture them, explain them to customers, and occasionally paint them and make them look shiny and new again.

How about a Yang/Cuban ticket?

Over my dead body. You want to see Democrats sit this one out in spite of the all too predictable result? Just put a bogus UBI together with an untested candidate, and them pair him up with a bogus Republican.
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Sorry, still doesn't refute the fact that people are not infinitely malleable.

Yes, sure truckers can do this or that thing that isn't programmer but that really isn't the point. Maybe just a bad example.

What's a UBI?

PS: I don't like Cuban either and other than the money I don't know why people are sort of svengalied by everything he says.

Wang? maybe a nice guy but, yes, very untested. And his "give everybody more money in a brown paper bag" sounds good but will just bring out more capitalists and self-entitled rent seekers so I'm not sure it would solve the problem
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<<How about a Yang/Cuban ticket?

Over my dead body. You want to see Democrats sit this one out in spite of the all too predictable result? Just put a bogus UBI together with an untested candidate, and them pair him up with a bogus Republican.>>



Heh, heh! You can fool a Goofyhoofy some of the time, but not ALL the time!


Seattle Pioneer
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"Anyone who works in a factory for a decade will have some kind of damage." - Ralph


Every old meat cutter I've ever worked with is pretty much shot. Standing on cold concrete all day and lifting heavy boxes of meat, unloading trucks, getting yelled at by the meat market managers your self confidence is pretty much shot. They got arthritis and their backs and are a mess. All of them got wicked scars from where they've cut themselves with wicked sharp knives. Most of them self medicate with alcohol, and back in the old days a lot of them smoked. By the time they were in their early to mid 50s they were a wreck.... that includes me. I also took care of animals for a living and that also includes a lot of heavy lifting, twisting and turning, besides being periodically infected with nasty protozoan animals and bacteria.

Factory work is pretty similar. The human body just wasn't designed for that kind of punishment.

Art
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<<Factory work is pretty similar. The human body just wasn't designed for that kind of punishment.

Art>>

I've been a blue collar, and I don't think things were that bleak.

The reasonable and prudent blue collar could an did save and invest money, avoided wasting money, and could build a good life over time.

The foolish blue collar got drunk, raised hell and spent all the money he earned and whatever he could borrow from other people.

The gas utility where I worked had lots of such blue collars. After working there twenty years or more, all having pretty much the same opportunities, some were millionaires and others were bankrupt.

The content of ones character was more important than the job they had. Jobs could be changed. Character was more durable, and could be either an advantage or disadvantage.



Seattle Pioneer
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Goofy paints a nice utopian future - retrained truckers merrily skipping along as they stevedore a ship, or paint an elevator. LOL - yes of course I know he didn't say exactly that. But I also know he didn't actually listen to the linked video, and if he did, he was too busy scoffing and mentally arguing with Cuban and Yang, and didn't have time to actually ponder their points?

Personally, I'm far more interested in the "automation is being automated" concept. We are already told that AI is being used to write software code to improve AI - cause software engineer/coders can't do it. Are robots building robots? Specialist robots are building semi-automated cars? Does that count?

Yang's comment about humans not being infinity malleable brings to mind the old homily "you can't teach an old dog new tricks"... And the stereotype of "age discrimination - over 50 and looking for a job? Good luck.". Both of those existed long before Yang and Cuban added "automation" to the mix.

BTW, what happens when that job painting elevators has 10 or 20 (or hundreds) of people wanting that job?

Imagine that: Americans doing the jobs that automation and robots don't want to do.

🤔mmmmm...
ralph

I supposedly have between 20 and 50 years more of life expectancy. I really don't want to live in a utopia such as that depicted in "Soylent Green".

Here's the TEOTWAWKI I want to see:
https://youtu.be/KSGuBNopzBw
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<<BTW, what happens when that job painting elevators has 10 or 20 (or hundreds) of people wanting that job? >.


So why is it that liberals anticipating the steep decline of most employment to near zero levels continue to want to keep up high rates of legal and illegal immigration into the United States?


Seattle Pioneer
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"Goofy paints a nice utopian future - retrained truckers merrily skipping along as they stevedore a ship, or paint an elevator." rainphakir

My dad's grandfather was a stevedore on the Mississippi River after he ran away from the farmer he'd been given to when he was a boy. His parents had like 13 kids and they were too poor to take care of them. The Farmer sent my great great grandfather to town to get a plow blade sharpened and he threw it in a pond and kept going. Someplace in Central Illinois. He walked to the Mississippi river and got a job loading and unloading boats going up and down the river.

He made it to New Orleans when he was 21 years old where he broke his leg. A kind lady took care of him while his leg mended and that's when and where he learned how to read and write. She taught him using the Bible. This must have been way back in the late 1800's? My dad told me this story.

By the way he made it all the way back to Minnesota where he got both his legs crushed and amputated in a logging accident and then during the depression he made and sold sauerkraut in quart jars for a nickel a jar. He pulled himself around on a little 4 wheel cart that he made himself. I'm guessing no worker's compensation back then?

Art
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Yes, sure truckers can do this or that thing that isn't programmer but that really isn't the point. Maybe just a bad example.

Yes, it’s true. That’s a bad example. But they’re ALL bad examples. There isn’t a profession in the world that hasn’t “gone out of business” at least for a while, at least geographically. We used to be 98% farmers, now we’re 98% not farmers. Somehow all those people managed to do something, didn’t they?

Oh, I know that happened over a century, so there was time to adjust - but then tens of thousands of farmers wee displaced during the dust bowl and depression, all at once, all within a couple years. What did they do? Well, some stayed on and became tenant farmers scratching out a meager existence. Some packed up and went west and got other jobs. Some became rich. Some didn’t.

Where are the stagecoach drivers? The stable boys? The lamplighters? The bowling alley pinsetters? The switchboard operators? The video duplication machine operators? The newspaper typesetter? The milkmen? The bread truck delivery men? Heck, where are the cowboys and the tall ships sailors and the newspaper typesetters?

Saying that humans are not “infinitely malleable” is absurd. Nothing is infinitely anything, including the universe, we now think. I’m not expecting ex-truck drivers to become coders, I don’t know anyone who does think that. But they could become mechanics, crane operators, heavy machine maintenance, logistics coordinators, warehouse workers, or heck, landscapers and lawn mower operators.

Goofy paints a nice utopian future - retrained truckers merrily skipping along as they stevedore a ship, or paint an elevator. LOL

Oh please. I’m not saying some people won’t fall, they will. There will be dislocation and many people, possibly even most, will fail downwards, not up. The next job might not pay as well as the last one. That’s the way it goes. That doesn’t mean you can only solve the problem by giving *everyone* a free lunch, even day, forever. It’s a terrible idea, it’s never going to be politically accepted and that’s probably because it’s a lame idea.

During the Great Depression FDR didn’t just send everyone a check. He designed programs to offer work, and hundreds of thousands took them. They weren’t the greatest jobs, nobody got rich from them, but they survived - and as a byproduct we got nice parks, library buildings, better roads, and a host of other things that benefited society as a whole. If it comes to it I would support such an effort again, but not a helicopter drop of money to everyone.

You want a “universal basic income”? Fine. Support a minimum wage that provides one at a job. If a job can’t economically do that, cancel it and give it to a robot. I’m OK with that.
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By the way he made it all the way back to Minnesota where he got both his legs crushed and amputated in a logging accident and then during the depression he made and sold sauerkraut in quart jars for a nickel a jar. He pulled himself around on a little 4 wheel cart that he made himself. I'm guessing no worker's compensation back then?

Art


Isn't that a heart warming, uniquely American story? And what makes it even better is Rich People paid even less taxes back then!
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<<The department was known as the Labor, Industry and Commerce Bureau from 1907 to 1913 and then it became an official Minnesota state department and renamed the Labor and Industries Department. Also, in 1913, the first workers' compensation law in Minnesota was passed by the state Legislature. I>>


<<By the way he made it all the way back to Minnesota where he got both his legs crushed and amputated in a logging accident and then during the depression he made and sold sauerkraut in quart jars for a nickel a jar. He pulled himself around on a little 4 wheel cart that he made himself. I'm guessing no worker's compensation back then?

Art>>


Looks like Minnesota probably had a Workers Comp law when that injury would have occurred.


Seattle Pioneer
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"And what makes it even better is Rich People paid even less taxes back then! "

Everyone paid less taxes back then.

Before, what, 1919, there was NO income tax on ANYONE. You got to keep your paycheck. No SS and No FICA, either. You kept ALL your money. No electric bills either, or cable, or cellphone, or internet. You just paid your real estate taxes or your landlord did.

- ---

When the income tax came in, it was going to affect the top 0.1% with a teeny tax.

There weren't a whole lot of 'rich' people back then, and most of them wound up bankrupt anyway in the Great Depression.

t.
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False choice. Truckers can be retrained into dozens, perhaps hundreds of other jobs. Freight loaders, dispatchers, line workers making windmill blades, backhoe or heavy equipment operators, motor coach delivery drivers, welders, garbage truck operators, and on. How do I know this? Because it’s already happened a thousand thousand times.

It is possible, sure. Doesn't mean it will happen though. For a number of years my wife worked on worker retraining programs and had a comparatively high degree of success (one of her programs was mentioned in a speech by pres. Obama). But in this field "comparatively high degree of success" means only a small number of eligible workers will even enter a retraining program--no matter how high the incentives--and even fewer will complete.

The reasons are many, but a large part of it is that if you are driving a truck at age 40, it means you probably weren't good at school when you were younger and don't have many other job skills. Going back to school at age 40 or whatever when you weren't good at school in the first place just isn't something most people are willing to do.

You[re right, displaced truck drivers could do most any of the jobs you mentioned, but what would the workers currently doing those jobs do? What might happen, and what has happened in the past, is that new jobs that we haven't thought of yet will be created. But increasingly low skill jobs are getting automated away. Back in the day, a McDonalds would be packed full of workers. Now it takes just a few to do the same amount of work. Newspaper sports stories and election results are are now commonly written by computers.

I could be wrong, but over the next decade or two I believe low still jobs will be increasingly automated away and will not be replaced by new low skill jobs.
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It will never happen, RP.

How about a Warren/Yang ticket? That won't happen either, but all those dozens of Presidential Democratic candidates might be tapped for positions in the next Democratic Presidency (Jan 2020).

How about Yang for Department of Labor?
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and will not be replaced by new low skill jobs.

This is where we disagree. I would say there might not be comparable *good paying* low skill jobs, but that's because of the abandonment of the minimum wage, the decimation of unions, and the other litany of war on blue and pink collar that's been waged since Reagan.

But there will be some. Solar installers make a decent living, and that's a new development. YouTube creators don't come from the top eschaton. Uber Drivers and similar (I know, I know, it's all going to be automated. Not in my lifetime.) Drone operators. Content moderator. Or Proofreader.

Remember the days of Avon Calling? The Fuller Brush salesmen? What happened to them? The Good Humor truck? Those were not exactly great jobs, and they're gone, and still somehow...

Next year will be another banner year for blue-collar labor. Be they truck drivers or HVAC workers, employees who didn’t do four or more years in a liberal arts college are hard to find and in hot demand heading into 2019, according to a report released December 13 by The Conference Board, a nonprofit organization researching the American business climate.

There is a blue-collar labor shortage in the United States, and it is not because of manufacturing returning from China and elsewhere, research analysts believe.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/12/16/in-2019-bl...

In any event, I think this "everything is going to be automated" meme is vastly overblown. There will be winners and losers, as there have been for the past century. People in the loser category will have to find something else to do. There are 12,000 radio stations in the US. Ten years ago they all had a full time air staff of 8 or 9, and a part time staff of 3 or 4. Flash forward that most of the industry is automated. Stations now regularly employ a couple of announcer and are on the satellite the rest of the time. It's automated, you see. Where are the 100,000 unemployed radio DJ's? I don't know, but they're not sitting around waiting for a UBI, not if they have a brain anyway. Are they happy? Dunno. Are they making more? Possibly. Radio DJing was a terrible paying job except for a visible few, but it was glamour and DJ's loved it. Now they're elsewhere. That's what's gonna happen.

It already has. It's been happening since Henry Ford put the assembly line in motion.
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Goofy:""There are 12,000 radio stations in the US. Ten years ago they all had a full time air staff of 8 or 9, and a part time staff of 3 or 4. Flash forward that most of the industry is automated. Stations now regularly employ a couple of announcer and are on the satellite the rest of the time. It's automated, you see. Where are the 100,000 unemployed radio DJ's? I don't know, but they're not sitting around waiting for a UBI, not if they have a brain anyway. Are they happy? Dunno. Are they making more? Possibly. Radio DJing was a terrible paying job except for a visible few, but it was glamour and DJ's loved it. Now they're elsewhere. That's what's gonna happen."

Actually, it goes back to the 1960s.

I worked for WGY/WGFM/WRGB TV as a summer broadcast tech replacement in 1967.

WGFM was 100% automated with a cartridge machine. 24 hours a day, it played from a carousel of carts, including ones with ads they inserted, and the ID every half hour. Not a DJ in sight.

WGY - 50KW AM - Clear Channel, had 'live programming' during the day starting at 5:30am. For a good part of the summer, my job was the midnight to 5:30 shift, when I played one side of a 33 /3 LP record album, then played one side of the next, etc, etc, fading down the music every 30 minutes for the station ID on cartridge machine, ...all night long. Easy job. Bring a book to read. Every hour I had to read the meters on the remote transmitter and record it - FCC requirement and you had to have an FCC Radiotelephone First Class license to do that. That got me the summer job. Union pay scale. Premium for 'night shift'. Worked 12-8am, had half hour lunch as if that made a difference.

The FCC first eliminated the First RAdiotelephone and all you needed was a General Class COmmercial license (easy to get). Then they relaxed the rules so transmitter readings could be done from hundreds of miles away at a central point.....so no need for First CLass licensees at the 'station location'. Of course, advanced electronics and monitoring help.

Now..most AM stations are 'talk radio' with network programming. Rush Limbaugh, Mark Steyn, Sports networks/talk shows......and any local content these days is sports or talk radio.....
a few actually play music and a good percent of the smaller ones are minority programming catering to specific audiences.

DJs? Not many. Talk show hosts - still around in fair numbers.

Automation ? Everywhere.

So where did the techs go? Well, still some equipment to keep running, antenna systems to fix, tower lights to replace, but most went into cellular radio that created 100,000 jobs since 1985.

Still 20-30 AM radio stations in Dallas, dozens of FM stations.....now maybe 20 TV stations including those on subcarriers..... 200 on the cable systems and 200 on the satellite systems.....


t.
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