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March 23

Most bottoms end at some longterm support level of importance and the last low does not suggest a lasting bottom for 2008. Unless the Febuary 1 highs are taken out on the present upmove, it looks to be a retest of the March lows with a high probability of failure and an ultimate 2008 low around Dow 11,150 which should prove to be an area of significant support. Failure here is not something I care to ponder.

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Here is one reason the bottom is not in. A total of 2,203,295 foreclosure filings - default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions - were reported on 1,285,873 properties nationwide during 2007, up 75 percent from 2006. "The year ended with a monthly increase of 7 percent in December, making it the fifth straight month with more than 200,000 foreclosure filings reported and giving the fourth quarter the highest quarterly total we've seen since we began issuing our report in January 2005," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.
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Agree that a bottom is not in, no full-on panic or capitulation move yet. The VIX got up over 33 or 34 recently but I am looking for 37 or more and a last thrust downward to around your target area for the Dow or below perhaps.

 Thereafter I look for a substantive bear market rally (people in "what me worry" land) after this point for a multi week or month time period to climb the wall of worry.

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