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From the last post, I figured I might as well start this now:

This link should send you over to a chart of "IRX", which is a Chiacog Board of Options Exchange product that tracks the 91-day T-Bill. ApA price of 33.60 means 3.36%. If the link works, you can tell that the T-bill has continued to coast down in June, and in fact last Monday the auction was the first one that the T-bill plus 230 people would have gotten an even lower rate if that had been the final May auction. (Darn!)

You can hit "all data" over to the left and it gives you going back a number of years (1989 I think?) Again, if this is working, you'll see that the 91-day T-bill stayed pretty low after the brutal Recession of 1991. I think it was from 1992 to almost 1994 that the thing was down around 3%.

If I were to put betting money on it, we could maybe see such a low rate in May 2002. But this T-bill is also something that will take off at the first sign the economy is going to start humming again OR if if appears that inflation is going to heat up. One of the earlier posters, George Purcell, pointed out that the bill is near historic lows. With the 80 basis-point incentive reduction, I agree that it strongly suggests consolidation.

But you could feasibly have a low May 2002 auction, and "grace period" consolidation, that would offer a rate just about as low as the numbers being bandied about here now.

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