No. of Recommendations: 0
Maybe you can backtest it. I looked at your criteria and thought it had too many subjective pieces. The market does what the market does, and whether or not you've bought or sold anything in the last 3 months doesn't enter into the picture.

There's nothing subjective about it, sell when the market is high, buy when the market is low. The 3 month waiting period is to keep from selling again next week when I just sold on Friday.

To be honest, I just backtested the S&P, not all the indices, but that's just because I'm lazy, not because it can't be done.

I generally try to write down the concrete steps of any method I'm considering, as if I was going to write a program to implement it.

That's what I did. I have it programed into a spreadsheet that tells me to buy or sell.

What if the US is at a 52-week high but Asia isn't? What if Asia then hits a high but US has dropped below the high? If you insist that all 3 must hit a high (or low) simultaneously, you might *never* get a signal.

I should have been more clear, if the average of the indies are at 95% or 5% of their 52 week/26 week trading range. (average of their ranges, not prices) The S&P had hit it's high last week (I believe), but it was getting dragged down by Europe which still isn't at a high (about 80%), but my average hit 98% on Friday so sell, or rather in this case rebalance since it's at my target bond to stock balance.

Simple is better, because simple is more robust.

I tend to think it's quite simple, more simple than how I interpret the SMA strategy.

Print the post  


The Retirement Investing Board
This is the board for all discussions related to Investing for and during retirement. To keep the board relevant and Foolish to everyone, please avoid making any posts pertaining to political partisanship. Fool on and Retire on!
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.