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MDC, I thought you would like to know you beat me into least as regards to owning HSGFX.

Prepare yourself for phone calls every month the Fund goes down...


LOL :), I think that might have been a more difficult task then the first time I deadlifted 405.

FWIW, as I mentioned in my previous post, I am increasingly becoming a believer in a "market melt-up" scenario over the next 1-2 years. Louise Yamada, who I consider to be a very good technical analyst, thinks the Dow is going to 16,000. FWIW, she nailed the beginning of the gold, commodity, and oil bull markets, and has been dead accurate on the 10-year so I put credence in her viewpoint. I think it is very notable that Richard Russell has turned bullish as well. He nailed the 74 bottom.

In my view, Hussman (and Grantham and apparently Dalio as well) are absolutely correct in their valuation arguments, but having experienced the late 90s, I know that over a 1-2 year time period, valuations can have no relevance whatsoever. Eventually they will, but eventually could be 3+ years away.

Assuming this market melt-up scenario unfolds, Hussman will continue to underperform because he is still fully-hedged and I don't expect him to change that stance. Interestingly, he also looks at "market action" which is his term for the technical factors. He has pretty consistently been positive on market action, so I can't help but wonder if it would have made more sense to only be partially hedged.

I've been sitting on a pretty hefty cash position for awhile and going back and forth on what to do. I considered adding to Berkshire, but it is already a 30% position. I've considered adding to Hussman or adding to Fairholme. I started looking at a few individual names that I think would have good upside exposure to the market, and that is why EBAY is interesting. I just don't want to have too much allocated to something that could underperform by a big margin if the market is up a substantial amount over the next 12-24 months.

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