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No. of Recommendations: 3

I have two things that I routinely think, they are true for me in Markel even though I've owned the stock since its public offering inception. By the way these two things are exceptionally true for those over on the Brookfield forums (that my view they are supremely accurate).

First, it is easy to overestimate the "knowledge" we have of a firm looking from the outside in. Yes, all the reading you can do combined with listening to the earnings presentations from management lead to simply too much confidence that we "know" what we actually really don't know.

Second, expectations aren't fundamentals. Again over on the Brookfield forums you can read the lead posters of BPY stating the the IV 10 figure is 7. Yep at even higher prices than today there was full expectations that you'd make 7 times your money in 10 years (including dividends). Simply mathematically impossible unless investors went bizarre crazy to the positive.

So with Markel, I surely don't know the outcome of Covid with business interruption, and slowdown of business to the company as to underwriting and such. But as I posted, in March I bought more at $750 and actually bought a tad around $900.

Is Markel a buy? I think it is a better buy than the overall market. But I'm not, and haven't been for years, nearly as positive as others as to expectations. Again expectations are not fundamentals, that's something nearly all those really focused on one business (or two) get mixed up.
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