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Stocks T / The Knot, Inc.


Subject:  Re: time for monthly KNOT post? Date:  9/4/2000  10:16 AM
Author:  babybull Number:  23 of 127

I think KNOT has more potential than most B2C's, but I won't throw down $$$ until I see postive business momentum. I'd rather pay $7/shr on the way up, than $3.50/shr on the way down.

It's important not to confuse business momentum with stock momentum. My own heretical view is that the rulebreaker port is doing investors a disservice by arguing that they should avoid buying companies whose price is going down. Sometimes an entire sector is hammered, the good along with the bad. We are paying the price for drkoop's sins.

If they can ramp sales

We're almost doubling sales quarter to quarter. Our price to sales ratio is currently at 2, and will very likely be 1 around the end of the year if the price doesn't increase. We're in a niche business, but it's a large niche and we only have one serious on-line competitor. The Knot is a marketing machine, achieving substantial name recognition among its target audience without taking on serious debt. WeddingPages was a visionary purchase.

I think KNOT is fairly valued.

At less than $50 million? Sheesh. They'll have that in sales by the end of the year, and our market opportunity is in the billions. If the Fool closes this board I will buy some more, the last time the Fool closed a board on me (SciClone), I had a 10 bagger. Might take a year or two, but we should get there too.

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