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Subject:  Re: Where are rates going? Date:  8/18/2001  1:53 PM
Author:  elambeth Number:  1976 of 36785

Although it is impossible to exactly predict where interest rates are going, one can successfully discern long term trends from historical research.

Interest rates are at a modern low right now. I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but I believe we're at least at a 10-year low, with the last time interest rates hitting this low being the Gulf War and 91 recession. And that was relatively brief; to find the last period of sustained interest rates this low, you have to go back to the 73-74 bear market and recession.

Now, this doesn't tell us when interest rates are going to go back up, nor if they will first continue to decline a or stay flat. But I think one can quite successfully conclude from the historical trends that now is probably not the best time to sock away a lot of money in intermediate or long term bonds.

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