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Subject:  Waxie Date:  2/22/2002  3:40 PM
Author:  harmy Number:  3612 of 6186

I find this quite disturbing !! I've followed Waxie's posts for a while now and he is usually spot on with his calls. Although he is unconventional in his posting this is one of his more sober and (I believe) very accurate calls.
It is probably the one main reason I've leaving the US market until things settle down which, judging from this article, maybe quite some time off.

We said MONTHS ago that the US banking system has to come into
question based on the overall demise of the stock market,
and world economic problems.

Today we have JPM under heavy pressure and hitting a new
fresh 52 week low (in spite of idiot analysts upgrading it
only days ago!) due to increasing liquidity and debt concerns.

We are advising you all to NOT have ANY longs once again.

Perhaps investors are dumber than even I think, because for
anyone not to see the writing on the wall is beyond ignorance.

IF the US banking system pulls a Japan on us, and I think it ultimately
will, then the rest of the stock market will implode on itself,
sending securities to fresh lows in very short order.

Whether or not this happens next week or next month, or in 6
months is anyone's guess, but it more than likely will happen
at some point.

Investors are gullable, they still believe that at some
point the stock market will make new highs.

Perhaps,anything is possible, but this Hubris should dictate
otherwise. WE do not believe that the market will make new highs,
and further we stick to our long term guns and call for
this Bear market to last for SEVERAL more YEARS.

We look at days like today where you should have obvious selling
given the breath of news as further evidence that we have NOT
reached bottoms on any index. Many so-called analysts will
point to todays action and say the opposite. Jim Cramer, who
I lose more and more respect for every time he opens his big
fat trappy mouth, said last week just that. However, the overwhelming
evidence points to further losses this year and still further
for a while until we reach fair and reasonable valuations.

While stocks prices have come down, we have yet to see
analysts come out with sell ratings. This is quite disturbing
and unfortunate. Goldman Sachs once again today upgraded CSCO.
This is probably the 30th time they have done that in the last
2 years. Why? Every shred of evidence points to further downside
with very limited upside to CSCO. They have been calling it long
from the $70s all the way down. At some point wouldn't you think
they'd just give TRUTHFUL info on the company?

Unfortunately the American public wants desperately to believe
that the stock market has to come back. It doesn't and its
doubtful it will for a LONG LONG time.

In the final analysis we have to determine that the other SHOES
have already dropped, with more to come, but the problem is
the same as the age old question -

"If I tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it, did it still

The stock market tree(s) have already fallen, unfortunately
no one seems to have heard it...

See ya on the other side,

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