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Subject:  Re: First Marblehead @ $32 Date:  3/19/2008  3:27 PM
Author:  valuemoosie Number:  1474 of 1817

I can't speak for Hewitt Heiserman, but FMD's business model is changing and I'm not so sure he would value it the same as he did back in November. I think with the credit markets shut down and with FMD turning into more of a lender than simply a facilitator of PSL's, it's profitability has certainly changed.

I agree. This isn't just an unfairly beaten up financial. It could still be a good company, but there's so much uncertainty right now that it's priced at the level of it's residuals - as if it was to be taken over for it's assets. My instinct says it's "worth" this at a minimum, but that doesn't mean it can't go 50% lower in the near term.

As for upside, it's difficult (for me at least) to envision it's value under various scenarios, given all the uncertainty, and as has been commented by TMFRichDad recently on the IV board, don't bet on GS providing a floor around $15. Wouldn't you try to get out of that deal?

I'm all for buying uncertainty, but only when I feel more certain than the market. Right now, with FMD, I just don't know, so am holding, waiting to see, but not adding.

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