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Subject:  And so it begins again? Date:  1/17/2011  2:51 PM
Author:  sazeracked Number:  27808 of 27873

Hi folks,

After a long spell of disinterest, I will not-so-candidly admit that I am softly interested in stocks again.

My long spell of disinterest commenced in 2000. After AOL bought Time Warner (still, I have to say "Huh?"), I believed as many did here on this board that the market was headed for a long, long sideways crawl.

We were mostly right. I kept a position in the market and have the residue to prove it. But mostly I moved at that time to cash, money market stocks, and after Bush was re-elected, to a Korean fund (I didn't have much faith in US currency at that time). And most of those moves were in step with a lot of the people right here on this fairly contrarian board.

There was indeed a long sideways crawl. The overheated real estate market of 2007 and the collapse of 2008 of course soured many further still. Myself, I wasn't surprised by either, and I was guessing back then that we might be headed for another decade-long long sideways crawl.

I don't believe that anymore. For starters, the fact that AIG is on track with its debt payback plan and that GM is already a private company again is fairly amazing to me.

But the thing that is most interesting to me and most convincing me otherwise is AAPL. Yes, it's obvious at a glance that AAPL's overvalued. But when you look at its numbers, it's position, the enthusiasm for it, I believe you come to this conclusion: it's just barely overvalued. And that's not a bad thing.

For one, it indicates to me that investors are going to be looking for stocks soon in a way they haven't before. AAPL is such an obvious "buy-what-you-know" stock that it always figures to have an oversaturated quotient, as did Sun Micro, Cisco, and Microsoft a decade ago.

I would imagine that those AAPL investors--a huge force all by themselves--are only going to get more interested in the market, not less interested, as the decade progresses. That'll probably blow up a solid tech segment of the market, and we could see a spate of tech rises and a very bullish Nasdaq again. I am thinking I'd like to be there for the rise.

I remember in the early zeroes, to show how overheated things were, Joseph used to post all the PE's of the Nasdaq 100. I thought he was right about that: that it was all behavioral trend and even within the Naz, the stocks with the lower PEs would be the "receiver stocks" as people bailed out of overheated companies with no earnings for companies with at least some.

[Here are a few:,, ]

I think we might be seeing something like the precise opposite of that now. AAPL--what a year! But it will be cut off as people look for other growth stocks.

And so it begins again?

That's all for now, because I don't know. But I know I'm watching and I wish I had the patience to fiddle with another list like that old Naz 100 one. Maybe I will.

best to you,

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