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Subject:  Re: Courting’ Kelly’s Waitress Date:  3/19/2011  1:32 AM
Author:  DrTarr Number:  32501 of 36904

But if he uses the published actuarial number of 104 for males, the published inflation-rate of 9.07% (pre-‘82 method), published gains numbers (look it up), and published tax numbers (ditto),

Using the SSA life tables for 2006, a 75 year old male has a life expectancy of just over 10 years (1 in 700 of making it to 104) so thanks for the extra years.

John Williams and the shadow stats-- yea, currently running about 9-10% using that methodology which of course since it is on the internet is accurate. Think his average since 82 using that methodology has been around 7%. Personally, think the old method had its flaws as well and think 5% is about the (truth) average.

Published gains - Schiller seems like a good source so will go with 5.2% as the 10 year government bond average since the real market crash (29)

Published tax numbers (New I should have bought some muni's) an effective rate of 18% is about appropriate -

And don't forget Social Security.. I mean I am 75 and it is solvent until like 2042--- So

Lets use: I make it to 110 (I'd be the first in my family to hit that mark 30% above), Inflation is 7% (40% above my experience), returns are 3.2% (40% below the average and WAY below my experience) Taxes are 25% (40% above reality) and no social security.....So all numbers jacked up 30-40% from experience seems really conservative.

You have me dying broke - my run shows me making it to 110 still leaving about a million - which ain't much but would buy a nice casket.

The answer is “Yes” provided he never spends a penny more (adjusted for inflation) and he doesn’t exceed his average, maximum life expectancy.

Looks to me like I have a ton of extra to spend - and for sensitivity - move any one of these numbers back to the realm of reality....and I am leaving the world at 104 with MILLIONS - Or, using what are realistic numbers, me and the waitress can spend 150000 inflation adjusted each year and I make it to 94 like Alfred the Butler!

Yes - the model blows up if you use 9% inflation - 2% returns - living 20 extra years and paying 40% more tax.
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