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Subject:  Re: Valero (VLO) Date:  1/25/2012  12:12 AM
Author:  LeKitKat Number:  9012 of 25651

thanks for the explanation

Three things are important? Crack spread, gas price and demand
About low priced crude---when you say crude hit record highs in the 2003-2007, that high price must have given TSO and VLO an edge because they took advantage of lower-priced Mayan. VLO and TSO hit some very high prices back then

Gas prices were record high in 2008 and they almost got there again in early 2011. TSO responded partially, VLO not so much. But they never got near 2008 levels--why? Was Mayan not as favorable compared to, say, Brent as it was in 2008? The crack spreads then were less wide than 2008 for these heavy refiners --did the difference between heavy sour and light sweet close?

Finally, demand appears to be the most important variable. Or maybe not. It seems to take all three being in perfect alignment, but even when gas prices rise a little and crude falls (as it did in 2009) refiners just don't do as well unless high demand is underlying it all.

Any idea why Holly continued to do so well while everyone else lagged?

thanks a bunch for all this
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