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Subject:  Re: AMBAC 5.95% Debenture Maturity 2/28/2103 Date:  12/21/2012  2:40 PM
Author:  joelcorley Number:  34575 of 37016


You wrote, Kudos to you for the thoughtful post on AKF. Now comes a tiny disagreement from me.

You advice selling *if* a price of $8 could be obtained. ...

Yeah. I was kind of assuming they wouldn't be novice enough to sell an liquidity security at market.

My post kind of implies that getting $8 would be a good deal at this point. Obviously getting $4 isn't, since they should be able to recover that much after the work-out. So yes, price does matter. Duh.

BTW, I agree that stops aren't bad. It's just that they're not the insurance policy some people seem to believe. The problems are two-fold. A simple trailing stop, converts to a market order and you (and everyone else) may wind up getting the absolute lowest price - especially if the news happens overnight and your trade executes at the open. Stop limit orders might be viewed as better; but in that case you might wind up holding the issue as it declines further. So I think TMF would argue that you should set an alert so you're warned and then look at the news and subsequent price action to determine if you should sell with a market or a limit ... or just hold. The point being to make an informed decision to sell, not a knee-jerk one. At least that's my take on it.

As for my personal view, I think stop limit orders are fine if you are holding large, liquid issues. Using them on illiquid issues is probably a recipe for big losses. And like most ETDs, I'd certainly have considered AKF an illiquid issue even before the BK.

- Joel
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