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Subject:  Re: good time to get rid of some stuff & TLT/SHV Date:  1/17/2013  9:10 AM
Author:  LONGREITS Number:  34697 of 36619

"why did i not consider just taking on a smaller position? i did not. even if i grabbed 20 or 50, at least i still would have caught some of the action. then in short time after, the PCX bond ended up migrating to where their recovery rating range is at the $48-$49 handle. i was pissed to say the least."


i've run into this same problem, as my equity positions are usually no smaller than 10%, and sometimes as high as 50%. i put in a incredible amount of research into Madison Square Garden, including contacting the top analyst on the street and talking to him about his views on the stock. i put up nearly 50% of my net worth, let's just say a real amount of money but under a million, into MSG thinking it's intrinsic value is closer to $50 and that it was a debt-free, asset rich business. i sold at $24 or 25 as the move was a big one and i was still in school at the time (30K+ pays a lot of tuition). alas, MSG has rocketed up to $47 in short order.

this past summer i was interested enough in Melco Crown to order the 10k. i read it but didn't buy the stock as i couldn't see putting 100k into the stock. went from 9 to 19.

same story with Mohawk ... 40 to 91.

same story with Inmet ... 39 to 70.

these are all within last 6 months. i haven't had a "major idea" that has lost....YET. the biggest loss is coming, for sure, just don't know when.

i should be taking 4-5% positions to catch some of the value.

my friend was the right hand guy to the founder of a mult-billion dollar hedge fund. he's the only guy i have to talk about investing with, so i sympathize with you. we have been talking a lot about Swedish Match.

i like the fixed income world but not versed in it. i've been trying to get smarter on the market. i haven't posted here for a while but feel charlie has been an invaluable resource to this board.
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