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Subject:  Still beating the markets (2016.q1) Date:  4/5/2016  1:00 PM
Author:  OranjeMannetje Number:  2383 of 2438

I didn’t look at the markets at all in the past several months due to conflicts with work. My recollection of the headlines in the last quarter were that is was very volatile, especially oil related stocks. I happen to work in the oilfield so that particularly stuck out for me. However, that might be anchoring bias since that is what I happen to notice the most and gets discussed at work. Fortunately, my MFI portfolio just operates in the background and the only times I look much at it are when I write these quarterly updates and when I sell and buy stocks in that portfolio.

I have made it ten years following the strategy with a portfolio backed by my real dollars. Hopefully the next ten years will also give satisfactory results.

The returns of my portfolio versus those of several Russell indexes through 31-Mar-2016 are as follows:

Portfolio Inception Date IRR R3000 R2000
Real Money 02-Feb-2006 +10.41% +6.97 +5.60

The following table details performance (IRR) over various time frames through 31-Mar-2016:
Portfolio 7 year 5 year 3 year 1 year
Real Money +21.61 +15.30 +20.35 -1.69
R3000 +17.09 +11.01 +11.15 -0.34
R2000 +16.42 +7.20 +6.84 -9.76

I also have several tracking portfolios that I maintain on Marketocracy as additional 'data points'. These were started on various dates using free data sources available from the internet. These portfolios are rebalanced annually near the date of inception with a small component left as cash to 'pay' expenses. Only portfolios with at least one year of history are included. The annualized returns of these portfolios versus those of several Russell indexes through 31-Mar-2016 are as follows:

Portfolio Inception Date IRR R3000 R2000
MFI 20-Mar-2006 +5.35 +6.84 +5.51
Fidelity 20-Mar-2006 +0.86 +6.84 +5.51
Yahoo 21-Mar-2006 +1.58 +6.86 +5.52
FinViz 30-Mar-2011 -3.83 +11.15 +7.56
MG1 08-Jan-2012 +9.75 +14.10 +11.36
SCHW 18-Mar-2012 -1.88 +11.94 +9.07

As I’d mentioned in October I will no longer track the current portfolios that were based on ROA and P/E. These include Fidelity, Yahoo, FinViz, and SCHW. The results posted here are current through the end of the most recent quarter. I hope to replace these with several new, revised portfolios in the future. I plan to continue to maintain both the MFI and MG1 portfolios since the data is still ‘pure’ (and free).



R3000 and R2000 are the internal rates of return for the Russell3000® and the Russell 2000® Indexes, respectively, over the given time period.

My self-managed account consists of four groups of 10 stocks each that were purchased and spaced out about 3 months apart. The picks are from the MFI website and selected from the top 50 and then run through a list randomizer. The first 10 on the list that I did not previously own are selected for the next cycle. They are rebalanced/shuffled/changed out on their respective anniversaries. I do not continue hold stocks that are still on the list or buy the same stock that is held in the other three cycles.

Marketocracy fund notes:
Only the MFI portfolio uses actual magic formula stocks picked from the website. All the other portfolios use the general screening option method outlined in the book to pick your own stocks using ROA and P/E ratios. The MG1 portfolio consists of the 30 highest ranked stocks from M.Gerda who posts about MFI on his blog. There were several funds that may have somewhat incorrect overall returns due to an error in Marketocracy's software. These portfolios held a position that was acquired for cash and did not reflect in the transactions in a timely fashion (or possibly correctly).
The free Yahoo screener that I used for many years no longer exists to generate new portfolios starting in 2015. As a result the Yahoo portfolio is now cobbled together using a list of profitable companies (P/E > 0) and market cap above 250M and then data is gathered using the SMF add-in from Yahoo. This is an effort to try and keep the data stream as pure as possible.
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