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Subject:  Re: fall, baby, ball Date:  4/9/2018  2:44 PM
Author:  gocanucks18 Number:  2627 of 3782

yeah, but OLLI is growing its sqft by 14%-15% while spending minimal CapEx while Big Lots is spending more than cash flow on CapEx to not grow at all. OLLI's minimal CapEx makes them much much different than a standard retailer. Lastly, as you know, fast growing retailers retain their PE ratios longer, but I'd be thrilled to get a -1% comp and see it down 30%.

the perennial growth retailer conundrum. feel like we had played with this exercise many times over the years. LULU, FIVE, ULTA, etc. I don't dispute OLLI's OCF/capex/FCF profile looks good today, but it trades at 48x trailing EPS (on a 53 week year) on very healthy margin. I don't know if they can really hold 40% GM for ever. I am sure TUES/BIG models had also looked great/better during their earlier days.

maybe i couldn't get over the chart where they had negative SSS half of the time from 2010 to 2015. My gut says this is an inferior/more flaky model than TJX/ROST.
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