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Subject:  Re: The Fed speaks on yield curve Date:  4/21/2018  6:17 PM
Author:  mauser96 Number:  93277 of 118635

we can't beat them don't know about that "we" .Some people on this board have been beating the the indices and most funds for many years. Bu later you say you can ,so I am not sure what you mean . Due to institutional restraints , simple B&H of S&P 500 ETF beats most mutual funds over the long run and outperforms the "average" investor 2 to 1 or better.

And it's not in your post but I have heard others say "you can't time the market" over and over. By that they mean they can't , thus nobody else can. Much the same as me saying since it takes me 12 minutes to run a mile nobody can possibly do it in 4 or 5 minutes.
Over on the MI board there are multiple systems that beat B&H. Usually only by a few percentage points but with less downside volatility. If you want a really simple one, look at a 45 week simple moving average of the SP500.

Timing tops is hardest to do, so don't expect too much here. I did reduce stock positions last yield curve inversion and it worked for me. Timing spike bottoms in bear markets is the most productive but that seems a long way off at this point.

Nothing is foolproof but few things in life are. I am happy if it just shifts the odds a little in my favor. I am always willing to bet more when I am the Las Vegas casino, not the Las Vegas customer.

To answer a question from somebody else, yield curve inversion is inversion, not flattening. You could use flattening, as I will do with unemployment . But you must pre define "flattening" based on available data ,not your gut feeling at the time.

My gut is very unreliable except telling me when it is suppertime. And I had a dog that did that ,never missing by more than a half hour, no matter the weather or time of year.

Re timing, I use cash, but tech investors could try switching temporarily to low beta stocks. Me I like as few decisions as possible.
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