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Subject:  Re: Crocodile Tears Date:  12/12/2006  7:53 PM
Author:  TMFSpiffyPop Number:  653 of 768

T. Allan,


Characteristically well-written, and enjoyable to read.


I also lost points on a CROX Underperform, as I did on a GOOG Underperform. And what I was reminded of in both cases -- "reminded," since I have learned this before -- is not to mess with innovative companies in the throes of their growth.


Perhaps Google IS overvalued. Perhaps Crocs is too.


But what unites both of these companies, and a few others besides, is that they blazed their own trail and continue to have higher expectations than where they are now. So you're left guessing at what point the music ends.


For innovative upstarts, even those that "look" overvalued, I prefer to short or pick Underperform once the music has CLEARLY ended. Because at that point they usually have even farther to fall, and you can make 20% or more just on that alone.


So, my advice: Prefer to pick BROKEN stocks to Underperform. Don't be "early" or the first to call a fad over.


Great to see you bloggin'. Shortly, we'll be adding RSS feeds to blogs, so that people like me can have your new entries automatically show up on my browser, as opposed to hunting and pecking.


Fool on,



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