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Subject:  Re: If No New Jobs Were Created How Can Unemploy Date:  12/4/2009  4:57 PM
Author:  amassafortune Number:  209553 of 732

I like the ADP Employment Report vs. BLS data because it ties directly to payroll processing. Some paychecks may be severance checks, but the data represents real money being issued to real workers and is unaffected by the way someone in their HR department may answer a survey question. Seasonal and birth/death adjustments are not part of ADP results, unless of course, the worker was actually seasonally laid off or died. See how simple accurate data collection can be?

ADP data comes from 400,000 non-farm, private clients. This is a better indication of the state of U.S. employment because these private jobs represent the core source of taxes and profits that drive the economy. That's not to say a soldier or Social Security administrator is not important, but public jobs are ultimately supported by private enterprise (temporary {hopefully} excess printing of greenbacks, notwithstanding). 

This week's ADP number showed a loss of 169,000 jobs in November and is one reason why the early Friday market euphoria quickly reversed. In my opinion, we already get a more accurate employment number from ADP for free and there is some tax savings opportunity at BLS. 

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