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Subject:  Re: - An Exact Account of What Happened Sunday.. Date:  3/13/2019  3:57 PM
Author:  1poorguy Number:  23939 of 24613

There may be a flaw under certain circumstances, but clearly those circumstances are rare. Maybe one in a million.

Not a chance. They've had two in five months.

I deal with statistics a lot in my job. Whether mean time to failure, or PPM failure, or values deviating some number of IQRs from median. It's part of what I do.

Planes crash, and that rate is measurable. Generally it would be presented as a distribution. The question becomes whether the MAX 8 falls within some set tolerance of the mean. I do not have specific data to crunch, but it seems likely given the size of the MAX fleet (very small...there are only a few hundred planes worldwide with something like a thousand more on order), the short time they've been flying (a couple of years), that the number of crashes associated with this model aircraft is excessive. It's probably several standard deviations away from the mean.

So compared to other aircraft in the global fleet, this particular model has a problem that makes it unsafe, or at least less safe. Doesn't mean every one of them will crash within the next week, just that the probabilities are markedly different from the rest of the population.

Until it is resolved, grounded or not, I would not set foot on one. The risk is higher than typical. Perhaps still lower than driving my car, but higher than the norm for the industry. Better to be sure you're on a model with a better safety record.
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