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Investment Analysis Clubs / Where Angels Fear to Tread


Subject:  Re: Dreamer Corp - Shareholder update Date:  1/28/2022  7:31 PM
Author:  Oforfive Number:  12996 of 13678

I am ready to let stuff ride

Me, too, but in my case more by necessity.

Its like the market is trying very hard to establish a bottom, but there is no conviction. I glance at a couple of factors: the fear/greed index and the trading volume on my stocks.

The fear/greed is showing "fear", but the story is more complicated than that. Two parts extreme greed, one neutral and four extreme fear. I think the extreme greed parts are really the result of the four extreme fears. Put/call ratio and bidding up junk bonds. Stocks themselves are in extreme fear, the money coming out has to go somewhere. With the economy generally doing well, money looking for a home with some return. I think that the forward looking market is somewhat o.k. with the one-year prospects but traumatized by the last 4 months. So, long leaps and, to a lesser extent, buying short term puts. These metrics signal "greed" to the computer but are the product of fear. How Market Volatility is neutral is beyond me. Sure as Hell isn't neutral in my neighborhood. Not sure when I last had less than a 2% daily change in portfolio value. I am 1.5% cash. DW has more, but it is dripping into the market.

Friday was a green day. Up 5.7%. But, that Ol' Debble Mr. Volume. My median volume was 80% average. Affirm was double average, ZI was +50% and SNOW +20%. These are not volumes that should produce 6% portfolio gains. This is the same caution I expressed to Saul when he called the bottom in December.

At 1.5% cash, all I could do this week was de-worsify. If anyone is keeping score at home, my portfolio:


UPST 27.6
DDOG 12.2
MNDY 8.6
CRWD 7.7
ZS 7.3
NET 6.1
AFRM 5.9
SNOW 5.8
DOCN 5.4
GLBE 4.0
BRZE 2.3
NCNO 2.0
SE 1.6
ZI 1.5
DOCS 1.0

I reduced SE and sold the OKE and SPG. I bought AFRM on 26th and 27th and it promptly cratered. Up 17% Friday to bring me to +6%. Volatility is NEUTRAL? Pig's arse. Started positions in DOCS, NCNO, BRZE and GLBE. MNDY might stand a haircut and I may dump SNOW in favor of increasing those starter positions.

Enjoy the weekend. I'm doing taxes, or trying to. California says form 568 not available. HTF I'm supposed to file? and their chat has not been up so I don't know when the form is to be expected.


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