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Michael,

that it would be a bullish development when Castro goes hey hey and passes into the great blue yonder because hey, the cruise lines would be able to go over to Cuba!

Well, maybe and maybe not. Technically, cruise lines can go to Cuba now, but Americans can't go ashore there....

Actually, there are three aspects to this issue.

>> 1. It's likely that one of Castro's generals (his brother?) will succeed him and that not much will change, including the politics. If that happens, we'll see the status quo and cruise ships still won't go there.

>> 2. It's equally likely that the country will degenerate into civil war as Castro's generals compete for power and various influences, both internal and external, try to overthrow the existing regime. In the mists of political turmoil tantamount to gang warfare or civil war, or threatening to bring such turmoil, the cruise ships aslo won't go there.

>> 3. If the various influences succeed in overthrowing the existing regimen and setting up a republic, or at least a government that's politically acceptable to the United States, you still have to deal with the question of what's in Cuba, other than supposedly "good" cigars, to attract tourists. amd thus cruise ships, to the island. A lot of the former infrastructure (resorts, Havana's infamous clubs, etc.) got converted to other uses when tourists stopped coming because Castro took over. It also will take a while to develop the infrastructure to support tourism, even in the form of cruise ships calling on the island.

Of course, it's also possible that the establishment of a new regime that's acceptable to the United States will lead to a push for commerce, including tourism, to bolster it. Nonetheless, I would not hold my breath.

Norm.
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