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Exact Sciences may still be showing a loss on a year to year basis, but revenue from screenings is growing substantially. In a recent press release, the big plateau number of one million screenings in a year was achieved in 2018.

What investors need to know is that this number is a combination of new and returning screening customers. The Cologuard test is an alternative to having a colonoscopy, and is recommended on a three year cycle. This means that the new base for 2021 is now closer to one million returning customers instead of all new customers.

I don't expect that those numbers will play out so simplistically. What I do expect is that the number of tests will grow yearly for the foreseeable future. Combining returning customers with an expanding base of new customers is the validation in the market for this product. It may not take too long to get to the billion dollar gross sales platform along with achieving profitability. That would be at somewhere around 2.2 MM tests a year if I have the math right.

And currently, the test is only being offered in the United States.

Full disclosure - I had trimmed some of my holdings in EXAS because it made up too big of a percentage of my investments by value. It still is my largest investment by value, although it is no longer my largest investment by initial cost. And yes, I am considering buying again at these prices.
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