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No. of Recommendations: 24
MPT is no longer that "modern" having been introduced almost 70 years ago

Economist Harry Markowitz introduced MPT in a 1952 essay,[2] for which he was later awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics; see Markowitz model.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory

Briefly, buy uncorrelated assets so that while some go up others go down and you end up with a low volatility portfolio. This assumes that volatility is equivalent to risk. While I was not impressed with MPT, it does have a useful kernel, diversify, but instead of using mathematics to diversify, use good judgement based on business model and industry group.

Diversification is not having dozens of stocks. If all your stocks are SaaS when SaaS falls out of favor you get hit hard which is hard on the nerves and you might be tempted to do something foolish like selling at a bottom.

Covid-19 and 2020 have been very instructive. I finally got the nerve to have a very concentrated Saul style portfolio with just four stocks. Zoom (ZM) was the prime Covid-19 choice. Next tele-health, Teladoc (TDOC) and Livongo (LVGO). I was looking around for the fourth position and after considering many options I settled on Fastly (FSLY) in part because it was great for selling covered calls and income was one of my concerns. The portfolio was growing quickly and I kept on the lookout for an additional position. Concentration is good but don't forget the safety of diversification. I had followed Tesla at arm's length for a decade and while I liked the core EV strategy I had doubts about the overall strategy, specially Musk's buyout of SolarCity which seemed more nepotism than good sense. I had a very negative view of SolarCity's business model. They did fail! Tesla's September Battery Day and comments by industry insiders like Sandy Monro changed my mind. I concluded that EVs and battery storage had crossed the Chasm making Tesla a safe investment. Equally important, Tesla was in a totally different industry than my other stocks providing welcome diversification.

It has been working out nicely, while ZM is down 27% from it's all time high ($588.84) TSLA is hitting its all time high, up pre-market another 5%. I'm glad I took action shortly after battery day, average price $428.96, now the herd is catching up. ;)

ZM vs. TSLA: https://softwaretimes.com/pics/zm-11-24.2020.gif

With the Teladoc/Livongo merger I'm again on the lookout for another stock. It's hard to find anything that can match Zoom and Tesla. While Teladoc has underperformed I have to give them time to see what effect the Livongo merger will have.

Denny Schlesinger
 


PS: half the money to buy TSLA came from taking profits on ZM, still my largest position, and a good chunk from the TDOC/LVGO merger, now my smallest position.
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Denny, may want check out the Butterfly SPAC. Its got an apple-like fanboy/fangirl following.
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<< ....the Butterfly SPAC. Its got an apple-like fanboy/fangirl following. >>

We were just about to purchase 2 ultrasound machines for our group of 10 providers....at a cost of about $100,000.

Instead, each one of us will get his/her own ButterflyIQ machine....for a total price of about $20,000.

We used to call this "disruption from below".


Alan
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Economist Harry Markowitz introduced MPT in a 1952 essay, for which he was later awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics... buy uncorrelated assets so that while some go up others go down and you end up with a low volatility portfolio

I’ve always resented that Markowitz got a Nobel for something as trivial as rediscovering arithmetic... while I’m still waiting for the Nobel Committee to honor the advanced energy storage system that I invented - Bag o' Rocks™.

Life ain’t fair.
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Butterfly SPAC?

Google doesn't know what it is

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q...

Denny Schlesinger
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Butterfly SPAC? Google doesn't know what it is

SPAC is colloquial shorthand for "spatchcock", an older term for flattening a chicken to roast it. "Butterfly" is the modern term for that prep technique. Chefs who want to be understood, use the combined phrase.
https://www.marthastewart.com/891288/how-spatchcock-chicken
https://www.marthastewart.com/342173/smoky-grilled-butterfli...
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SPAC is colloquial shorthand for "spatchcock", an older term for flattening a chicken to roast it. "Butterfly" is the modern term for that prep technique. Chefs who want to be understood, use the combined phrase.

Thanks but I still don't understand what butterfly roast chicken has to do with investing. :(

Denny Schlesinger
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Longview is the SPAC that is expected to take Butterfly public.

Butterfly Network is going public through a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Longview Acquisition (NYSE:LGVW).
https://investorplace.com/2020/11/butterfly-network-spac-mer...


After the merger, the ticker will be BFLY.

Buy the SPAC (ticker LGVW) before the merger, and with the merger, the investor gets "into a company (in this case BFLY) before the IPO".

It's a way for retail investors to buy an IPO, before the actual IPO.

SPACs are hot right now.

😷
ralph
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After the merger, the ticker will be BFLY.

Finally some sense!

Has the butterfly crossed the Chasm?

Denny Schlesinger
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<< Has the butterfly crossed the Chasm? >>

Not yet....but on its way.

This is a hand-held ultrasound device that uses a smart-phone (and its attendant app) as the screen.

It was initially developed for use in 3rd world countries: it is (relatively cheap) and very durable. Instead of using a delicate & expensive crystal to generate the ultrasound signal, it relies on array of microchip based transmitters.

I predict that the stethoscope (unchanged for over a century) will be entirely replaced by these. Every practitioner will have one of these hanging from a holster.


Alan
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Definitely crossed the chasm. Made POCUS a smidge cool.

https://www.butterflynetwork.com/investor-webcast

Alan- lots of Q's:
-Blocks, A-lines, peri-op echo or all of the above?
-there used to be an issue getting around biomed and purchasing because they were a new vendor. Issues at your site?
-are you archiving images in their cloud, in the emr, or none?

More just curious what larger groups doing.

Ps- you utilizing ESP blocks? Pretty versatile, useful and low risk!
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Definitely crossed the chasm. Made POCUS a smidge cool.

Is POCUS related to HOCUS? I wish you would post in clear English.

I watched the video presentation. I have been subjected to ultrasound over the years and it certainly is less invasive than other diagnostics. In each case I either had to go to a lab or they had to bring a large machine to the bedside. Hand held and using a smartphone for display and connectivity is a huge leap forward. Unfortunately almost all the "data" used in the presentation are guesstimates about the future. No, butterfly has not crossed the chasm.

Remember that IPOs have two functions, raise capital for the business and as an exit for angel and venture capital.

I need to compare butterfly with other medical devices I've been interested in lately.

BTW, FUMA, I wish you had not derailed my thread. Why not start a new one dedicated to butterfly?

Denny Schlesinger
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That said diversification has been a blessing these days.
While Ecommerce and SAAS is down EV TSLA & NIO are saving portfolio
I got into TDOC after the merger and so far regretting the move but trying to be patient and see how they perform combined

Also very concerned about effects of vaccines on.ZM even tho i know the shift to virtual work arrangements are in most cases permanent.

Are you concerned at all about ZM?

Bella
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Are you concerned at all about ZM?

Not really. You can't expect a stock to go up five fold year after year. I've taken profits on ZM on three occasions and it's still 30% of the portfolio. Whenever I get worried about a stock I look at the chart

https://softwaretimes.com/pics/zm-11-24-2020-1.gif

this one looks pretty reassuring. In Oct investors took profits (I did too) and after the bottom on Nov 10 it started to rise again. But more important, the story has not changed. The vaccine news is mostly noise as far as Zoom is concerned. One can't expect people to be locked up at home all the time but there are lots of cost and time savings in using Zoom for both WFH and virtual client visits as well as in medicine where it's good to stay away from infectious surroundings. Frankly I'm more worried about Teladoc but as I said above, right now I have to give it time to see how the merger works out.

Denny Schlesinger
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<< -Blocks, A-lines, peri-op echo or all of the above? >>

All of the above....and then some. Can be used for the FAST exam in the ED; central lines; just used it in the OR to check for retained POC (products of conception)


<< there used to be an issue getting around biomed and purchasing because they were a new vendor. Issues at your site? >>

Yes, we had that issue...until they realized these devices cost 5% of the older models.


<< -are you archiving images in their cloud, in the emr, or none? >>

Their app is HIPAA compliant, and we archive both on their cloud and our EMR.


Alan
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Wow, would be really interested to hear your impressions of it's utility.

We were just about to purchase 2 ultrasound machines for our group of 10 providers....at a cost of about $100,000.

Instead, each one of us will get his/her own ButterflyIQ machine....for a total price of about $20,000.

We used to call this "disruption from below".
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No. of Recommendations: 1
<< would be really interested to hear your impressions of it's utility. >>

It takes about 1 day to get used to using it; as Fuma102noted, the probe has a different profile than the standard (Sonosite) linear probe, but that's just a matter of familiarity.

I have used it in every setting that I've used the Sonosite (or any other brand). But having it, literally, on my person at all times is a game-changer for me.

And since this machine is chip-based, this single device takes the place of needing a machine with multiple probes. A single tap converts it from a linear probe to a curvilinear one (for example) and makes changing depth of penetration and fidelity a software (not a hardware) choice.

Remember, each probe for different uses on standard US machines runs (at least) $15,000.


Alan
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