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Geoffrey Moore posted a message on the GG listserve today in which he discussed the parallels between RMBS today and QCOM last year. Here's a snippet:

...parallels between market reaction and adoption of Qualcomm and Rambus. In both cases the companies showed up with blocking patents in key technologies. In both cases the industry required to license these patents has done everything it possibly could to wriggle off the hook. In neither case do they appear to have succeeded. I just saw a squib yesterday that Intel shut down its "bridge" chip operation, after losing $250M on it--this was to be a substitute technology for Rambus. Now RDRAM is the only supported solution in the architecture plan, I believe. This would appear to solidify their gorilla anchor.

He went on to address the issue of "gorilla adjacency power," which he defines as "the ability of a gorilla to muscle into adjacent markets." The question now is, will a value chain consolidate around Rambus technology for other memory applications (aside from PCs)?

From his comments, it sounds to me as if Moore believes the game is already over as far as PC memory is concerned, and although he didn't state it flat-out, it sounds like he's calling Rambus a bona fide gorilla at this time. It's interesting to me that he seems to be making the call much earlier for Rambus than he did for Qualcomm.


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