No. of Recommendations: 28
Looking for Mr. Goodbuy (data from Oct 28, 2007)
A mechanical approach to finding BMWm candidate stocks
Table 1: Sorted ascending on RMS
See a brief explanation below the tables. And see a longer explanation
in BMW Board message 27893.
Selected on: Manifest Quality > 65; BMWm Expected Return >= 30%
PAR less than MIPAR+15% (this week 9.6% + 15% = 24.6%), with
at least 6 years of BMWm-type data.
Above the line = TMF CAPS rating >= 90%
* = RMS <= -1.5
+ = At least 16 Yrs of data, Stewardship = A|B, M* = 4|5, CAPS % >= 95
Tick Yrs Qual PAR QPZ RMS RF CAPS CAPS P/E M* Stew Fin EPS
% # Str Pred
CL* 30 84.8 9.5 0.47 -2.62 2.70 98.6 145 25 3 B 98 99
BRO* 10 79.1 14.1 0.63 -2.37 1.67 94.4 18 19 4 A 98 84
AVP* 25 68.1 8.0 -2.39 -2.29 2.08 92.7 41 32 4 B 80 75
LNCR* 15 79.6 16.4 1.22 -2.27 1.84 90.9 22 14 3 C 76 85
SYY*+ 20 83.8 14.9 1.52 -2.14 1.54 96.1 77 21 4 B 94 93
MDT*+ 25 79.4 16.7 1.25 -2.11 2.46 95.1 143 19 5 B 96 100
CTAS* 16 74.2 13.4 -0.27 -1.96 1.81 92.3 13 18 5 A 96 99
AIG* 20 73.6 17.3 0.51 -1.94 1.94 94.8 250 10 4 B 98 70
EXBD* 8 76.3 14.5 0.29 -1.90 1.48 92.2 77 35 4 C 94 80
WAG* 20 83.6 19.7 2.56 -1.87 1.74 93.5 169 20 5 B 100 99
PEP* 30 88.1 9.2 0.90 -1.83 1.77 97.7 395 19 3 B 100 99
AMGN* 20 66.0 12.7 -1.66 -1.81 2.60 91.6 323 16 5 D 100 88
BUD* 20 71.3 10.3 -1.40 -1.79 1.40 91.0 233 20 3 A 92 95
CAH* 16 73.5 15.4 0.07 -1.69 1.74 95.7 70 32 4 C 90 86
AAP* 6 72.0 16.2 0.02 -1.63 1.32 93.8 16 15 5 B 57 56
ZMH* 6 72.9 20.6 1.14 -1.56 1.38 98.1 105 18 5 B 99 74
AEO* 6 75.6 18.4 1.06 -1.54 1.56 93.8 306 13 4 C 91 56
LLTC*+ 16 78.9 22.8 2.53 -1.54 2.10 95.3 43 23 4 B 97 66
BMS* 20 70.6 11.6 -1.21 -1.52 1.31 90.0 20 16 5 A 83 91
MHP 20 86.7 14.7 1.91 -1.45 1.32 92.4 66 18 5 B 99 97
SNV 16 75.1 16.0 0.45 -1.30 1.55 90.9 11 13 5 B 96 98
PAYX+ 16 88.0 16.1 2.42 -1.25 1.79 97.2 106 29 4 A 96 86
WYE 25 73.1 8.5 -1.52 -1.25 1.45 90.5 63 15 3 C 83 98
KSS 15 87.9 19.8 3.23 -1.13 1.70 91.3 104 16 3 C 90 85
VAR 16 68.2 11.3 -1.64 -1.12 1.36 98.6 71 27 3 B 90 89
DIS+ 40 66.9 11.6 -1.77 -1.06 1.74 95.0 418 16 4 B 87 73
JNJ+ 35 74.3 13.4 -0.25 -1.03 1.45 95.2 1018 18 5 B 100 99
QCOM 16 73.6 14.4 -0.14 -1.02 1.85 90.0 219 25 4 A 89 61
OMC 16 71.4 11.5 -1.11 -0.96 1.49 100 16 19 3 B 91 96
HIBB 11 83.5 18.5 2.27 -0.93 1.33 94.1 17 20 - - 85 94
==============================================================================
POOL* 12 65.9 21.1 0.19 -4.78 3.18 67.3 49 14 - - 55 92
MCO* 7 75.1 18.5 1.00 -4.50 1.86 83.2 119 14 5 B 83 89
GCI* 20 79.1 17.3 1.34 -3.77 3.08 37.0 27 9 3 D 92 86
CAKE* 15 79.6 23.6 2.82 -2.98 2.30 85.3 95 21 5 D 78 92
FITB* 16 68.1 16.9 -0.41 -2.75 3.21 27.8 54 14 5 B 85 82
BBBY* 15 90.4 21.0 3.87 -2.71 2.49 85.0 147 16 5 D 98 89
SBUX* 15 84.2 18.9 2.47 -2.69 1.73 81.3 705 32 5 B 91 96
LOW* 20 77.9 21.4 2.07 -2.67 2.20 83.9 242 14 5 B 99 92
FDO* 20 71.0 15.5 -0.28 -2.63 2.89 78.6 28 16 4 B 90 94
WMT* 35 75.1 12.7 -0.29 -2.62 6.00 71.5 491 15 5 B 96 99
EWBC* 8 76.6 13.8 0.18 -2.60 1.72 81.8 11 13 4 B 88 92
TCB* 16 75.7 15.0 0.31 -2.49 1.99 60.0 15 11 5 A 66 90
MTB* 16 69.2 12.2 -1.29 -2.47 1.57 42.3 26 14 4 A 98 96
HOG* 20 87.4 18.1 2.77 -2.39 2.57 76.7 193 12 4 B 97 90
ASBC* 20 72.0 12.3 -0.85 -2.03 1.42 45.5 11 13 5 B 94 96
SLM* 16 76.5 18.9 1.30 -1.84 1.67 69.2 52 19 3 A 65 94
LLY* 25 69.8 12.3 -1.18 -1.80 2.08 87.0 77 26 4 B 97 96
WSM* 16 78.2 14.5 0.58 -1.80 1.98 88.5 26 18 4 B 83 76
KNX* 13 87.7 11.8 1.42 -1.77 1.45 68.4 19 19 - - 73 92
WL* 16 76.9 14.5 0.39 -1.73 1.37 66.7 9 18 5 B 97 99
BBT* 16 66.4 17.9 -0.44 -1.64 1.61 78.9 38 13 5 C 96 84
AVY* 20 73.3 15.1 -0.03 -1.53 1.51 75.0 16 16 4 B 91 91
WFMI* 15 80.5 11.9 0.35 -1.53 1.55 89.1 612 36 5 B 87 69
ZION 16 69.5 14.2 -0.80 -1.49 1.77 75.0 16 11 5 C 91 97
CMA 16 67.7 13.7 -1.18 -1.47 1.61 39.1 23 10 5 B 94 87
WFC 20 77.1 16.5 0.86 -1.47 1.44 80.1 196 13 4 B 96 83
ROST 20 72.9 16.3 0.18 -1.38 1.69 88.9 9 15 4 C 98 87
DBD 25 71.5 13.0 -0.77 -1.29 1.44 87.5 8 40 5 B 53 87
MER 30 66.4 18.9 -0.22 -1.24 1.62 64.7 201 7 4 B 96 66
AJG 20 72.4 16.4 0.13 -1.19 1.32 50.0 12 19 5 B 90 82
TJX 16 69.3 13.0 -1.10 -1.13 1.53 85.3 34 20 3 B 94 94
SPLS 16 87.9 17.1 2.63 -1.09 1.44 88.6 70 16 5 C 95 89
SCSS 9 67.2 15.8 -0.79 -1.07 2.43 87.2 893 16 - - 97 49
FWRD 14 90.0 13.7 2.19 -1.06 1.54 88.5 26 19 5 B 87 78
HAR 16 66.5 13.2 -1.48 -0.99 1.38 88.5 26 18 - - 88 68
C 30 77.7 17.2 1.11 -0.84 1.46 80.2 514 10 5 B 99 96
MSFT 20 84.0 17.0 2.01 -0.81 1.69 89.4 1228 23 3 A 94 94
KSWS 17 77.1 18.1 1.22 -0.53 1.34 89.1 46 14 5 C 75 63
NVR 22 74.4 18.6 0.92 -0.37 1.75 12.9 132 7 4 F 92 66
==============================================================================
Looking for Mr. Goodbuy (data from Oct 28, 2007)
A mechanical approach to finding BMWm candidate stocks
Table 2: Sorted descending on QPZ (Quality z-score+PAR z-score)
See a brief explanation below the tables. And see a longer explanation
in BMW Board message 27893.
Selected on: Manifest Quality > 65; BMWm Expected Return >= 30%
PAR less than MIPAR+15% (this week 9.6% + 15% = 24.6%), with
at least 6 years of BMWm-type data.
Above the line = TMF CAPS rating >= 90%
* = RMS <= -1.5
+ = At least 16 Yrs of data, Stewardship = A|B, M* = 4|5, CAPS % >= 95
Tick Yrs Qual PAR QPZ RMS RF CAPS CAPS P/E M* Stew Fin EPS
% # Str Pred
KSS 15 87.9 19.8 3.23 -1.13 1.70 91.3 104 16 3 C 90 85
WAG* 20 83.6 19.7 2.56 -1.87 1.74 93.5 169 20 5 B 100 99
LLTC*+ 16 78.9 22.8 2.53 -1.54 2.10 95.3 43 23 4 B 97 66
PAYX+ 16 88.0 16.1 2.42 -1.25 1.79 97.2 106 29 4 A 96 86
HIBB 11 83.5 18.5 2.27 -0.93 1.33 94.1 17 20 - - 85 94
MHP 20 86.7 14.7 1.91 -1.45 1.32 92.4 66 18 5 B 99 97
SYY*+ 20 83.8 14.9 1.52 -2.14 1.54 96.1 77 21 4 B 94 93
MDT*+ 25 79.4 16.7 1.25 -2.11 2.46 95.1 143 19 5 B 96 100
LNCR* 15 79.6 16.4 1.22 -2.27 1.84 90.9 22 14 3 C 76 85
ZMH* 6 72.9 20.6 1.14 -1.56 1.38 98.1 105 18 5 B 99 74
AEO* 6 75.6 18.4 1.06 -1.54 1.56 93.8 306 13 4 C 91 56
PEP* 30 88.1 9.2 0.90 -1.83 1.77 97.7 395 19 3 B 100 99
BRO* 10 79.1 14.1 0.63 -2.37 1.67 94.4 18 19 4 A 98 84
AIG* 20 73.6 17.3 0.51 -1.94 1.94 94.8 250 10 4 B 98 70
CL* 30 84.8 9.5 0.47 -2.62 2.70 98.6 145 25 3 B 98 99
SNV 16 75.1 16.0 0.45 -1.30 1.55 90.9 11 13 5 B 96 98
EXBD* 8 76.3 14.5 0.29 -1.90 1.48 92.2 77 35 4 C 94 80
CAH* 16 73.5 15.4 0.07 -1.69 1.74 95.7 70 32 4 C 90 86
AAP* 6 72.0 16.2 0.02 -1.63 1.32 93.8 16 15 5 B 57 56
QCOM 16 73.6 14.4 -0.14 -1.02 1.85 90.0 219 25 4 A 89 61
JNJ+ 35 74.3 13.4 -0.25 -1.03 1.45 95.2 1018 18 5 B 100 99
CTAS* 16 74.2 13.4 -0.27 -1.96 1.81 92.3 13 18 5 A 96 99
OMC 16 71.4 11.5 -1.11 -0.96 1.49 100 16 19 3 B 91 96
BMS* 20 70.6 11.6 -1.21 -1.52 1.31 90.0 20 16 5 A 83 91
BUD* 20 71.3 10.3 -1.40 -1.79 1.40 91.0 233 20 3 A 92 95
WYE 25 73.1 8.5 -1.52 -1.25 1.45 90.5 63 15 3 C 83 98
VAR 16 68.2 11.3 -1.64 -1.12 1.36 98.6 71 27 3 B 90 89
AMGN* 20 66.0 12.7 -1.66 -1.81 2.60 91.6 323 16 5 D 100 88
DIS+ 40 66.9 11.6 -1.77 -1.06 1.74 95.0 418 16 4 B 87 73
AVP* 25 68.1 8.0 -2.39 -2.29 2.08 92.7 41 32 4 B 80 75
==============================================================================
BBBY* 15 90.4 21.0 3.87 -2.71 2.49 85.0 147 16 5 D 98 89
CAKE* 15 79.6 23.6 2.82 -2.98 2.30 85.3 95 21 5 D 78 92
HOG* 20 87.4 18.1 2.77 -2.39 2.57 76.7 193 12 4 B 97 90
SPLS 16 87.9 17.1 2.63 -1.09 1.44 88.6 70 16 5 C 95 89
SBUX* 15 84.2 18.9 2.47 -2.69 1.73 81.3 705 32 5 B 91 96
FWRD 14 90.0 13.7 2.19 -1.06 1.54 88.5 26 19 5 B 87 78
LOW* 20 77.9 21.4 2.07 -2.67 2.20 83.9 242 14 5 B 99 92
MSFT 20 84.0 17.0 2.01 -0.81 1.69 89.4 1228 23 3 A 94 94
KNX* 13 87.7 11.8 1.42 -1.77 1.45 68.4 19 19 - - 73 92
GCI* 20 79.1 17.3 1.34 -3.77 3.08 37.0 27 9 3 D 92 86
SLM* 16 76.5 18.9 1.30 -1.84 1.67 69.2 52 19 3 A 65 94
KSWS 17 77.1 18.1 1.22 -0.53 1.34 89.1 46 14 5 C 75 63
C 30 77.7 17.2 1.11 -0.84 1.46 80.2 514 10 5 B 99 96
MCO* 7 75.1 18.5 1.00 -4.50 1.86 83.2 119 14 5 B 83 89
NVR 22 74.4 18.6 0.92 -0.37 1.75 12.9 132 7 4 F 92 66
WFC 20 77.1 16.5 0.86 -1.47 1.44 80.1 196 13 4 B 96 83
WSM* 16 78.2 14.5 0.58 -1.80 1.98 88.5 26 18 4 B 83 76
WL* 16 76.9 14.5 0.39 -1.73 1.37 66.7 9 18 5 B 97 99
WFMI* 15 80.5 11.9 0.35 -1.53 1.55 89.1 612 36 5 B 87 69
TCB* 16 75.7 15.0 0.31 -2.49 1.99 60.0 15 11 5 A 66 90
POOL* 12 65.9 21.1 0.19 -4.78 3.18 67.3 49 14 - - 55 92
EWBC* 8 76.6 13.8 0.18 -2.60 1.72 81.8 11 13 4 B 88 92
ROST 20 72.9 16.3 0.18 -1.38 1.69 88.9 9 15 4 C 98 87
AJG 20 72.4 16.4 0.13 -1.19 1.32 50.0 12 19 5 B 90 82
AVY* 20 73.3 15.1 -0.03 -1.53 1.51 75.0 16 16 4 B 91 91
MER 30 66.4 18.9 -0.22 -1.24 1.62 64.7 201 7 4 B 96 66
FDO* 20 71.0 15.5 -0.28 -2.63 2.89 78.6 28 16 4 B 90 94
WMT* 35 75.1 12.7 -0.29 -2.62 6.00 71.5 491 15 5 B 96 99
FITB* 16 68.1 16.9 -0.41 -2.75 3.21 27.8 54 14 5 B 85 82
BBT* 16 66.4 17.9 -0.44 -1.64 1.61 78.9 38 13 5 C 96 84
DBD 25 71.5 13.0 -0.77 -1.29 1.44 87.5 8 40 5 B 53 87
SCSS 9 67.2 15.8 -0.79 -1.07 2.43 87.2 893 16 - - 97 49
ZION 16 69.5 14.2 -0.80 -1.49 1.77 75.0 16 11 5 C 91 97
ASBC* 20 72.0 12.3 -0.85 -2.03 1.42 45.5 11 13 5 B 94 96
TJX 16 69.3 13.0 -1.10 -1.13 1.53 85.3 34 20 3 B 94 94
CMA 16 67.7 13.7 -1.18 -1.47 1.61 39.1 23 10 5 B 94 87
LLY* 25 69.8 12.3 -1.18 -1.80 2.08 87.0 77 26 4 B 97 96
MTB* 16 69.2 12.2 -1.29 -2.47 1.57 42.3 26 14 4 A 98 96
HAR 16 66.5 13.2 -1.48 -0.99 1.38 88.5 26 18 - - 88 68
-----
Key to column headings
Yrs = # of years of BMWm-type data available for this firm
Qual = The firm's Quality rating calculated by Manifest
PAR = The firm's Projected Annual Return calculated by Manifest
QPZ = the sum of Z-scores I've calculated for Qual and for PAR.
RMS = RMS data from mklein9, otherwise from sheridan03's screening tool
RF = BMW Return Factor from mklein9, otherwise from sheridan03's screener
CAPS% = % of TMF CAPS "All-Stars" who rate this stock to beat the S&P 500
CAPS # = The number of TMF CAPS "All-Stars" who have rated this stock
P/E = P/E from Morningstar (as of most recent Friday's close)
M* = Morningstar's overall rating of the firm (1 to 5, worst to best)
Stew = Morningstar's "stewardship" rating of firm's management (A to D)
Fin Str = Manifest's rating of the firm's Financial Strength (0 to 100)
EPS Pred = Manifest's rating of the firm's EPS predictability (5 to 100)
Other mysteries explained:
MIPAR = Manifest's lingo for the current median PAR value for all
stocks in Manifest's database; I discard stocks with a PAR greater
than MIPAR+15% because I consider such PAR values not credible.
For a more detailed explanation, see message 27893 on the BMW Board.
